Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | April 23, 2022

Race 8 at Keeneland | Saturday April 23 | Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern

Ben Ali Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Four Years Old and Upward

Top win contenders:

Scalding (7) is a lightly raced four year old who has improved in every start since his eighth place debut last November, which happens to have been his only sprint. Stretching out to a mile in December, he finished second and has won his three races since, each faster and faster based on Equibase Speed Figures of 98, then 105 and finally 110 when winning the Challenger Stakes last month. Javier Castellano is the only jockey the colt has known and rides today and with the colt being a son of Derby winner Nyquist out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare this nine furlong trip he’s trying for the first time today should suit him fine. As such, Scalding is the one to beat in this year’s Ben Ali Stakes.

Proxy (3) has a lot in common with Scalding as he won or placed in his first five starts, but those were between October of 2020 and February of 2021. In his fourth career start, Proxy finished second in the Lecomte Stakes then in his next start, his first at the nine furlong distance of the Ben Ali, Proxy finished second to Mandaloun, who then finished second in the Kentucky Derby. After that, Proxy went a bit off form with a pair of fourth place finishes and he took eight months off from April to this past February. Returning as a four year old, Proxy won an allowance race powerfully then although second in the New Orleans Classic Stakes last month the colt ran the best race of his career, earning a 109 Equibase Figure pretty much on par with the 110 figure Scalding earned around the same time. Likely to improve in his third start following that lengthy layoff, if Proxy improves just a touch more than Scalding, he can win this race.

Warrant (5) is yet ANOTHER horse entering this race off a career-best effort. Taking a step back three races from that, Warrant won the Ohio Derby at this distance last September then took four months off to mature over the fall and early winter. Returning in January, Warrant wasn’t back in his 2021 form yet as he finished third in the Louisiana Stakes, but then on March 5 when shipped to California to participate in the Santa Anita Handicap, Warrant ran a fantastic race as he battled head-and-head for the last half-mile of the race before coming up a head short of the wire, earning a 106 Equibase figure. Considering he had won at this distance last September and is cutting back from 10 furlongs to nine furlongs for this race as well as making his third start of 2022, Warrant should give a good account of himself once more. Just the same, we should remember that he could need to improve more than Proxy or Scalding to win, but that is not out of the question.

Note there are really no knocks on many of the others, particularly Mighty Heart (2), who has earned $1 million while winning six of 14 races on dirt or all-weather. The one knock is that he has been away for four months and in his first start of 2021 off a similar layoff he set the pace before tiring to third at the end. His next start, in the Blame Stakes at the distance of the Ben Ali last May, was a huge effort in which he won by a nose so if he is not in need of a race before running his best as he was last year, he is another we might see in the thick of the action in the stretch.

Win bets

Scalding (7) at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Consider win bets on Proxy (3) at odds of 5 to 2 or more and on Warrant (5) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Scalding (7) and Proxy (3)

Box Scalding (7) and Warrant (5)