Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | April 3, 2021

Race 11 at Keeneland | Saturday April 3 | Post Time 6:35 PM Eastern

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $800,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

We’re getting down to the nitty gritty on the “Road to the Derby” with three of the final four race which award 100 points to the winner this weekend, including the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. The other two are the Wood Memorial Stakes in New York and the Santa Anita Derby in California, with the Arkansas Derby the final race in the sequence where the winner is guaranteed a starting spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

With that in mind, some horses’ connections (owner, trainer and jockey) may be “all in” here trying to get the necessary points and hoping their charge recovers adequately in the ensuing four weeks. Then there are the horses who have points and for which the 40 points going to the runner-up may be enough to get into the Derby, so they don’t have to go all-out in this spot. For certain that applies to Essential Quality (4), who opens as the prohibitive 3 to 5 favorite as he has 40 points to date. Hidden Stash (1) (22 points) isn’t that far off as 62 may be enough to run in the Derby if his connections choose to do so.

That is essentially why my top choice in this year’s Toyota Blue Grass Stakes will be Highly Motivated (3), because he and his connections of Klaravich Stables, Chad Brown and Javier Castellano are just that. He’s already won at Keeneland, having proven victorious by a four length margin last November in the Nyquist Stakes, and he finished third last month in the Gotham Stakes in his first start after four months off. With tons of improving to do second off the layoff and likely pointing to this race since his comeback last month, there’s little doubt Highly Motivated can successfully run the nine furlong trip, given sire Into Mischief was the sire of last year’s Derby winner Authentic as well as graded stakes winner Audible and Owendale. Having improved from an 87 Equibase Speed figure in his debut last summer, to 89 then to 104 in the Nyquist, I expect vast improvement off the 102 figure earned last month in the Gotham and given the connections have more incentive to win as compared to Essential Quality, Highly Motivated gets top billing in this race.

Also highly motivated is Untreated (2), who has only run twice to date. Perhaps more logically pointing to the Preakness or Belmont via the Peter Pan next month in New York, he still deserves contender status here because in only the second start of his career and first route, he ran a stakes quality race. In that mile and 40 yard race on the same day as Highly Motivated won, but at Tampa Bay Downs, Untreated relaxed in seventh for the first half-mile before quickly passing all but one foe. By the time the field hit the stretch he was in front and widened to an eight and three-quarter length win with gas left in the tank. The 101 figure was exceptional for a maiden winner and logically he should improve in only his third career start and second route so he is fast enough to compete with Highly Motivated (104 and 102 figures in his last two races and Essential Quality (101 and 105 figures in his last two races). Given Untreated is trained by Todd Pletcher, whose Known Agenda won the Florida Derby last week, there’s little doubt in my mind Untreated belongs with these and has potential to post the upset, opening at 8 to 1 odds.

Essential Quality (4) is the logical betting choice in this race and will be the prohibitive favorite at post time. Still, as written above, he doesn’t “Have To” win this race to run in the Derby. Returning from nearly four months off at the end of February, Essential Quality ran the fastest of any in this field (105 figure). Considering his pattern last year (88 to 95 to 101) if he jumps up another seven points as he did from his first to second starts last year he will be very tough to beat. Essential Quality has also won at Keeneland, having taken the Breeders’ Futurity last fall in only the second start of his career, before winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If there is one knock, it’s from a betting perspective, but aside from that Essential Quality should be a formidable presence in this race.

Rombauer (5), Hush of a Storm (7) and Hidden Stash (1) all have a shot at the minor awards and can be used on exacta and trifecta tickets involving this race.

Betting Strategies –

Bet Highly Motivated to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

A second win bet, for about half the amount on Highly Motivated, is warranted on Untreated (2) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exotic bets: With a prohibitive favorite such as Essential Quality likely to be in the top two, the trifecta is preferred over the exacta.

Trifecta: Untreated (2), Highly Motivated (3) and Essential Quality (4) over Untreated (2), Highly Motivated (3) and Essential Quality (4) over Untreated (2), Highly Motivated (3), Essential Quality (4), Hidden Stash (1), Rombauer (5) and Hush of a Storm (7).

Optionally we may play this trifecta as well:

Untreated (2), Highly Motivated (3) and Essential Quality (4) over Untreated (2), Highly Motivated (3), Essential Quality (4), Hidden Stash (1), Rombauer (5) and Hush of a Storm (7) over Untreated (2), Highly Motivated (3) and Essential Quality (4)