Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | April 4, 2020

Race 9 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday, April 4 | Post Time 6:09 PM Eastern Time

Purple Martin Stakes | Purse $100,000 | Six Furlongs | Fillies, Three Years Old

Kimari (1) should be very sharp making her three year old debut and starting for the first time in five months. Although her last four starts were on grass, Kimari proved she can run on dirt in her career debut last April at Keeneland when romping home by 15 lengths with a 105 Equibase figure. Shipping to England to run in the prestigious Queen Mary Stakes for her second career start last June, Kimari did not disappoint when second, beaten a head, in a twenty-five horse field. Returning to the U.S. last summer, Kimari won both the Bolton Landing Stakes and the Indian Summer Stakes (defeating males) before a strong rally which came up short when she only finished fourth of 12 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (also earning a 105 figure) last November. Perhaps most importantly, Kimari has proven she can win when on the lead from the start or when far back in the early stages. For her first start of 2020, Kimari has been working spectacularly on both turf and dirt and considering trainer Wesley Ward does very well with horses coming back from these types of layoffs, I will expect Kimari to fire a winning shot in this year’s Purple Martin Stakes, particularly as it appears likely a number of these may go for the lead as hard as they can, complimenting this filly’s late kick.

That being said, Edgeway (4) could be a very special filly. In her one and only start, at the end of February at Oaklawn Park, Edgeway established the early lead and didn’t give any other horse a chance when ridden out to a five length win. The 111 Equibase figure earned is the best earned by any horse in the Purple Martin Stakes field and it is logical to assume Edgeway can improve off the effort in her second career start. On the other hand, it’s a big step up from maiden to stakes, but trainer John Sadler is a good judge of when a horse can make that jump successfully. According to a STATS Race Lens query, over the last five years Sadler has won with four of 13 horses who made the leap to stakes after having broken their maiden first time out, some at decent odds. As such, Edgeway must be respected as a win contender in this situation.

Frank’s Rockette (8) is proven in stakes races just like Kimari, with nearly identical career earnings of $290,883 compared to Kimari at $291,646. Frank’s Rockette has never been worse than second in five races. After runner-up efforts in the Spinaway Stakes and Frizette Stakes last summer and fall, Frank’s Rockette took nearly five months off, returning to win the Any Limit Stakes at the distance of the Purple Martin. Earning a career-best 107 figure for that seven length ridden-out win, Frank’s Rockette should be able to run even better in this race. If she does, and if Kimari and Edgeway both run as expected, we could see an exceptional stretch battle between three superb fillies, and perhaps others.

We need to consider a couple other gals for the exotics, Ring Leader (2) and Lexi On the Move (6), as both appear to be just a cut below the top trio in terms of probability to win. Ring Leader won the first three starts of her career including the identical Dixie Belle Stakes here at Oaklawn in February, before a poorer and somewhat irrelevant fifth place finish in the Honeybee Stakes last month. The reason that may be irrelevant as it was her first try around two turns and it was a grade 3 race. Returning to a sprint, with a very sharp recent four furlong workout in: 47 flat, she may need to improve off a career best 91 figure effort but she may be able to do just that. Lexi On the Move is undefeated in two starts, both at Oaklawn and both very good efforts in which she powered off in the last eighth of a mile. The 94 and 93 figures are short of the top three, all who earned 105 or better, but this filly may not know she’s a cut below and could outrun high odds.

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets: Kimari (1) to win at 9 to 5 odds or higher.

“IF” Edgeway (4) is 5 to 2 or higher near post time, I would consider a win bet on her as well.

Exactas:

Kimari (1), Edgeway (4) and Frank’s Rockette (8) over Kimari (1), Edgeway (4), Frank’s Rockette (8), Ring Leader (2) and Lexi On the Move (6).

Trifecta: Kimari (1), Edgeway (4) and Frank’s Rockette (8) over Kimari (1), Edgeway (4), Frank’s Rockette (8), Ring Leader (2) and Lexi On the Move (6) over Kimari (1), Edgeway (4), Frank’s Rockette (8), Ring Leader (2) and Lexi On the Move (6)