Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | April 9, 2022

Race 7 at Keeneland | Saturday April 9 | Post Time 3:55 PM Eastern

Madison Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $500,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

The Madison Stakes is always a thrilling race, no much more than this year with last year’s winner Kimari (6) returning and last year’s Madison runner-up Bell’s the One (5) returning as well, plus other horses which have won similar stakes races.

In spite of the two powerhouse mares above, the NOW horse is Just One Time (4), a phrase many a bettor has shouted in their lifetimes. Just One Time is a lightly raced, newly turned four year old with a record of five-for-six in her career. She’s thrown in just one clunker in her lifetime and better still she enters the race off a win in a nearly identical race to this one, the seven furlong Inside Information Stakes in Florida at the end of January. She loves short rests like the one she’s coming back from here and she can stalk the pace or rally from far back as well. Her last two workouts were spectacular and she still has improving to do as a four year old compared to most of the rest of these which are five and six so I give her slight preference.

That being said, Kimari (6), being seven- for-10 in the U.S., is one tough mare. She is a perfect two-for-two at Keeneland including last year’s Madison and she won her 2022 comeback last month after four months off and is on a pattern just as she was last year when winning this race.

Bell’s the One (5) has won 11 of 22 races and $1.5 million dollars in her career which includes three wins at Keeneland. She is making her 2022 debut and her fast closing runner-up finish behind Kimari in last year’s Madison came off a layoff so another “A” race is likely.  

Club Car (8) is not a win contender for me but it would be a mistake to leave her off any exacta or trifecta tickets played, evidenced by her career record (5-10-5 in 24 races) in which she has demonstrated she is competitive but just shy of good enough to win these kinds of races. She missed in last fall’s TCA Stakes by a neck to Bell’s the One and was second to that one again one month later in the Dream Supreme Stakes at Churchill Downs.

Win bets:

Just One Time (4) to win at odds of 9 to 5.

Please note that minimum odds on Kimari (6) and on Bell’s the One (5) are around 9 to 5 as well but in this case I think the value will be on only Just One Time as far as a profitable win wager is concerned.

Exacta:

Just One Time (4), Bell’s the One (5) and Kimari (6) over Just One Time (4), Bell’s the One (5),  Kimari (6) and Club Car (8).

Trifecta:

Just One Time (4), Bell’s the One (5) and Kimari (6) over ALL over Just One Time (4), Bell’s the One (5),  Kimari (6) and Club Car (8).

When the exacta and trifecta above are both played, we can win if any two of the three main contenders (Just One Time, Bell’s The One) finish first and second or first and third, with any horse finishing second, and we can win both bets if any of the top three selections wins then if any two of those three plus Club Car finishes second and third.