Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 14, 2021

Race 9 at Arlington Park | Saturday August 14| Post Time 7:13 PM Eastern

Mr. D. Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | One and One-Quarter Miles on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

In the Mr. D. Stakes, formerly the Arlington Million, we are unlikely to get 22 to 1 as we got with top pick State of Rest last week in the Saratoga Derby, but Armory (9) opens at 9 to 2 and that’s a square price for profit. It appears Armory can add to the success European imports have had in Grade 1 races in the U.S. this summer, like State of Rest last week and like Bolshoi Ballet winning the Belmont Derby. Armory has won five of 15 career starts, including one at this 10 furlong turf trip and one at the slightly longer distance of one and five-sixteenths miles. After a runner-up effort in the Group 1 Cox Plate in Australia last October, Armory took time off to mature and returned as a four year old to win the Huxley Stakes in May, earning a then career-best 118 Equibase Speed Figure. Next, even when third in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes in June at Royal Ascot, Armory ran fantastically well when checking in third behind sensational turf star Love, improving his career-best figure to 122. Most recently, Armory finished third in the York Stakes last month, behind another superstar in Bangkok, with a 115 figure effort. Jockey Ryan Moore, who rode the trainer’s Bolshoi Ballet to victory in the Belmont Derby earlier this year, comes in from Europe to ride and the only time he rode Armory this year was to victory in the Huxley Stakes, which suggests Armory is ready to win for the sixth time in his 16^th career start and emerge victorious in the Mr. D. Stakes.

Domestic Spending (3) is the strongest challenger to Armory in this race, but opens as the heavy 6 to 5 favorite, based on having won four in a row including when earning a 119 figure when winning the Manhattan Stakes on Belmont Stakes day in June in his most recent start. With his four race win streak stretching back to the 2020 Saratoga Derby, Domestic Spending has proven he loves firing big off short rests like this one, such as when winning the Hollywood Derby last fall and when winning the Turf Classic Stakes in May. Jockey Flavien Prat has been aboard for his last two wins and knows exactly when to tell Domestic Spending to change gears, just as he did in the Manhattan when going from 11 lengths behind the leader in seventh after a mile, to second with an eighth of a mile to go, before drawing off to win by nearly three lengths. Now possessing a six for seven in his career, if Domestic Spending runs as expected the likely stretch battle between him and Armory may be one for the ages.

Zulu Alpha (5) leads the field with 12 career wins and $2.2 million in earnings. Although more known as a horse who loves to run a mile and one-half, the distance he won the Elkhorn Stakes (116 figure) last year, Zulu Alpha has won at this 10 furlong trip as well and he has won on the Arlington Park turf course as well, something neither Armory nor Domestic Spending can claim. Having been away from the races since last September, Zulu Alpha’s fifth-place finish in the Arlington Stakes last month can be viewed as a prep for this race. Having earned a career-best 123 figure in the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational Stakes last year and a 116 figure in the Elkhorn, there can be little doubt Zulu Alpha can run well enough to win this race. Opening at 8 to 1, that makes him playable as a win bet as well as on exacta tickets.

Bizzee Channel (8) has finished first or second in three straight including winning the local prep, the Arlington Stakes, last month in his most recent effort. The 111 figures earned in the first two of those wins were strong though a bit below what the top three contenders can earn, so his 6 to 1 odds are a bit lower compared to Zulu Alpha than they should be. Nevertheless, with good tactical speed, a familiarity with the track and the fact he’s been first or second in 11 or 20 races, Bizzee Channel deserves some respect when considering our wagers involving this race.

I’ll also toss in Two Emmys (4) for second on some exacta tickets owing to his 3-7-0 record in 15 career starts including when beaten a neck on the wire by Bizzee Channel in the Arlington Stakes last month.

Win bets:

Armory (9) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Zulu Alpha (5) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher, and for a slightly lesser amount than Armory.

Exactas:

Armory (9) over Domestic Spending (3), Two Emmys (4), Zulu Alpha (5) and Bizzee Channel (8).

Domestic Spending (3), Zulu Alpha (5) and Armory (9) over Domestic Spending (3), Two Emmys (4), Zulu Alpha (5), Bizzee Channel (8) and Armory (9).

Trifecta:

Domestic Spending (3), Zulu Alpha (5) and Armory (9) over Domestic Spending (3), Two Emmys (4), Zulu Alpha (5), Bizzee Channel (8) and Armory (9) over Domestic Spending (3), Two Emmys (4), Zulu Alpha (5), Bizzee Channel (8) and Armory (9)