Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 15, 2020

Race 8 at Saratoga | Saturday, August 15 | Post Time 5:07 PM Eastern

Saratoga Derby Invitational | Purse $500,000 | One Mile and Three Sixteenths on Turf | Three Year Olds

Going for the slight upset like we did successfully last weekend with Bodhicitta ($11.20) in the Yellow Ribbon Handicap, I think Colonel Liam (6) can win as a low odds overlay, opening at 7 to 2 odds. The colt has raced only three times, only once on turf, but it was that turf race, run last month on the Saratoga turf course, which tipped his hand. Stalking the pace while just a bit wide on the backstretch and far turn, Colonel Liam backed off a bit and let two horses go by, then swung out into the four or five path late on the turn before accelerating away to win by almost three lengths. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode Colonel Liam but gets on Pletcher’s other starter No Word (3) here. However, there’s no concern as Javier Castellano takes over the mount. Colonel Liam earned a 101 Equibase Speed Figure for that win, and should improve in his second ever turf race. The experience of running over the Saratoga turf is also advantageous versus the four others who have never run on the course. Putting that 101 figure in perspective, only Field Pass (7) and Bama Breeze (1), the first and sixth place finishers, respectively, in the Transylvania Stakes, have higher last race figures at 105 and 103. The 101 is higher than the 100 figure favorite Decorated Invader (2) earned winning the Hall of Fame Stakes four days earlier at Saratoga, and it’s higher than the 101 figure Gufo (5) earned winning the Kent Stakes on July 4. Additionally, Colonel Liam is the ONLY horse in the field who beat older horses, having faced three year olds and upward in all three starts including his win last month. That’s another potential edge, or at least a factor that makes up for moving from allowance to stakes.

Gufo (5) has won four races in a row since a third place debut last November. All five races have been on grass and the last two earned 101 Equibase Speed Figures. He was flattered out of his Kent Stakes win when third place finisher Vanzzy won the Jersey Derby since then. Gufo has one of the best, of not the best, late kicks in the field, having rallied from sixth with an eighth of a mile to go one before that and from sixth at the quarter pole last time out, getting the last eighth of a mile in a field high 11.3 seconds.

Decorated Invader (2) opens as the heavy 7 to 5 favorite off three straight stakes wins just like Gufo. His last two wins earned 100 figures which are absolutely competitive with the rest of the field, but they don’t make him a standout. There’s a case to be made that by earning the same 100 figure in each of his last two, “Pairing” numbers can mean a regression is coming. Still, there’s no way I’ll take a stand against him when considering exotic wagers but at these low odds he’s a poor bet to win.

Field Pass (7) deserves honorable mention at the least. He’s won five of 11 races including four of his last five, all stakes. The 103 and 105 figures he earned in those last two races including the Transylvania Stakes last month in a 10 horse field win here if he can repeat the effort, and if improving horses like Colonel Liam and Gufo don’t continue to move forward.

Betting Strategies:

Win:

Bet Colonel Liam (6) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Consider a win bet on Gufo (5) at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Decorated Invader (2), Gufo (5), Colonel Liam (6) and Field Pass (7).

Then, trying to capitalize on a strong opinion Colonial Liam is going to be first or second:

Colonel Liam (6) over ALL

ALL over Colonel Liam (6)