Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 20, 2022

Race 8 at Del Mar | Saturday August 20 | Post Time 8:34 PM Eastern

Del Mar Oaks | Purse $300,000| One Mile and One-Eighth on Turf | Fillies, Three Year Olds

Analysis and top contenders:

Spendarella (11) has always been cut out to be an exceptional horse on the grass, being a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie. She won the first three races of her career, one month apart in February, March and April of this year, the latter two stakes races in which she earned 104 and 102 Equibase speed figures, which are exceptional for a three year old filly that early in the year. In the first of the two stakes wins Spendarella led from start to finish beating 10 other horses in the Herecomesthebride Stakes then one month later she relaxed off the pace to draw off late in the Appalachian Stakes. Sent to England for the prestigious Coronation Stakes, Spendarella wasn’t disgraced one bit when second behind the strong four length winner, gamely holding second by a nose and earning a field high 112 figure. She’s been working very well since her return and jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who was aboard for the Appalachian, has the mount so we can expect a top effort good enough to win.

Txope (9) is the biggest threat to Spendarella based on her win when last seen (in June) winning the German One Thousand Guineas and earning a 111 Equibase speed figure right there with the 112 Spendarella earned in the Coronation Stakes. She’s now run 12 times, finishing first or second in eight of those, the last eight being stakes races as well. In training at Del Mar since the end of July, Txope (FR) has put in three consistent workouts on the Del Mar turf and appears to be handling it well. As such, she should be in a great position in the last quarter mile and has a big shot to add to her record in this year’s Del Mar Oaks.

In this full 14 horse field, with no also-eligibles, so barring any horses becoming sick all will run, I wouldn’t argue with cases to be made for many of the others, such as the one-two-three finishers of the San Clemente Stakes last month – Bellabel (2), Sixteen Arches (7) and Island of Love (3) or even the fourth place finisher in the race (beaten just a neck for third), Lady T (13). Cairo Memories (5) is also worth mentioning as she won the Providencia Stakes and Honeymoon Stakes back-to-back before a fifth place finish in the $1 million Belmont Oaks Invitational last month. Just the same, I think if this race was run 100 times, Spendarella or Txope would win about 66 times between them. 

Win bets: Consider Spendarella (11) and Txope (9) at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Note: Spendarella opens as the 8 to 5 morning line favorite so we will use exacta and trifecta tickets to make a profit if she wins.

Exactas: Box Spendarella (11) and Txope (9)

Spendarella (11) over Txope (9)

Spendarella (9) over ALL (this is the bet instead of a win bet at low odds)

Trifectas:

Spendarella (11) and Txope (9) over Spendarella (11) and Txope (9) over ALL

Spendarella (11) and Txope (9) over ALL over Spendarella (11) and Txope (9)