Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 27, 2022

Race 9 at Del Mar | Saturday August 27 | Post Time 9:02 PM Eastern

Pat O’Brien Stakes | Purse $250,000| Seven Furlongs | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

The Pat O’Brien Stakes is a “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile to be run at Keeneland in November. It might also be a key race on the road to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint for some who may want to cut back from seven furlongs to six in the fall. That makes it a significant race. Better still, we have a 10 horse field.

The betting favorite is going to be Speaker’s Corner (8), who opens at 6 to 5 odds. He’s got the credentials to win, with a six for 11 career record including a win at the distance in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile in April. Since then he’s faced not one, but TWO Buzzsaw’s in Flightline and Life Is Good, the former running in the Pacific Classic next Saturday and the latter the winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. With neither of those superstars in this race, could it be his race to lose?

With that in mind I think there’s just ONE horse with a chance to beat the favorite, and one more we must use on exacta tickets as he is likely to go to post at double digit odds. The horse which can post the mild upset is Laurel River (7), from the Baffert barn. Baffert also trains Defunded (9) but that one just finished a poor seventh and does not appear to be a contender here. On the other hand, Laurel River just returned from a 10 month layoff to win powerfully at Del Mar, opening up with ease under a hand ride and a near five length win. He should run even better second off the layoff and improve markedly off the 106 Equibase Speed Figure he earned that day. Laurel River earned a 110 figure before the rest, also at a mile and also at Del Mar, and on the cut back from eight to seven furlongs he should have a good deal of energy in the late stages to win. Baffert has a very strong 10 for 31 record of moving horses from routes to sprints in stake as well which is another reason to think Laurel River may offer overlay win bet value, opening at 5 to 1.

The Chosen Vron (6) is the horse mentioned earlier likely to be double digit odds near post time and who can run better than many people expect. First, he has showed up in all eight races in his career, with a 5-1-2 record. Like Laurel River, The Chosen Vron cuts back in distance, having rallied from sixth with an eighth of a mile to run, missing by a head on the wire on August 6. Considering four of his five wins have come sprinting, he should really appreciate the cut back and he earned 106 and 112 Equibase figures in two of those wins so he fits on numbers as well.

Honorable mention goes to American Theorem (4) and Get Her Number (5), the one-two finishers in the Bing Crosby Stakes at the end of July, as well as to Principe Carlo (2), who was second to American Theorem in the Triple Bend but only managed fifth in the Bing Crosby.

Win bets:

Laurel River (7) at 2 to 1 or more.

The Chosen Vron (6) at 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Laurel River (7) and Speaker’s Corner (8)

Box The Chosen Vron (6), Laurel River (7) and Speaker’s Corner (8)

Laurel River (7) over Principe Carlo (2), American Theorem (4), Get Her Number (5), The Chosen Vron (6) and Speaker’s Corner (8)