Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 28, 2021

Race 8 at Saratoga | Saturday August 28 | Post Time 3:37 PM Eastern

Forego Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $600,000 | Seven Furlongs | Four Year Olds and Upward

 Mischevious Alex (1) can post the upset in this year’s Forego Stakes, opening at 6/1. He won the identical Grade 1 Carter Handicap in April with a stellar effort, drawing off by nearly six lengths after sitting third, about four lengths behind the leader in the early stages. His third place effort in the Met Mile wasn’t near as good and he disappointed as the seven to five favorite last month in the Vanderbilt Handicap but neither of those were run at this seven furlong trip as the Carter was when he won for the third time in five career starts at the distance. The 113 Equibase Speed Figure is on par with the best of ANY of the others and as Mischevious Alex is just a four year old it’s likely he hasn’t run his best yet. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode the colt for the first time last summer at Saratoga when in the John Servis barn and continued to ride after Saffie Joseph, Jr. took over his training, and with Ortiz’ handling Mischevious Alex won three in a row including the Carter to bring his record to 7 for 1 on dirt at the time, so there are many reasons to believe he will repeat his Carter effort in this situation.

Yaupon (7) is also a four year old and much more lightly raced as compared to Mischevious Alex. He’s five for seven in his career and comes off a career-best effort with a 115 figure last month in the Lite The Fuse Stakes at Pimlico. He won the Amsterdam Stakes a year ago this weekend at Saratoga but all seven of his starts have been at six furlongs and just the fact he’s unfamiliar with the trop compared to Mischevious Alex makes him just a bit slightly less probable to win, but more probable than any of the other six. Additionally, Yaupon opens at five to two compared to six to one for Mischevious Alex so isn’t nearly as good of a win bet.

Mind Control (4) and Firenze Fire (8) have won more than $3.8 million combined, with 22 victories between them in 56 races. Mind Control beat Firenze Fire by a head when they faced each other in the John A. Nerud Stakes in July at Belmont at this distance, and the 113 figure was as good (fast) as the figure Mischevious Alex earned winning the Carter, but they both like to lead early and could get into a battle then be vulnerable to being passed late so I’ll just use them in second on exacta and trifecta tickets. Whitmore (2) will be used in third on trifecta tickets because although he’s had a fantastic career, winning 15 races for nearly $4.5 million in earnings, at the age of eight he’s lost enough of a step evidenced by a 0-2-2 record in four races this year.

Win bets:

Mischevious Alex (1) to win at odds of 5 to 2

(Note: minimum win betting odds on Yaupon (7) would be three to one and that’s unlikely.

Exactas:

Mischevious Alex (1) and Yaupon (7) over Mischevious Alex (1), Yaupon (7), Mind Control (4) and Firenze Fire (8).

Trifectas:

Mischevious Alex (1) and Yaupon (7) over Mischevious Alex (1), Yaupon (7), Mind Control (4) and Firenze Fire (8) over Mischevious Alex (1), Yaupon (7), Mind Control (4), Firenze Fire (8) and Whitmore (2).