Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 29, 2020

Race 10 at Del Mar | Saturday August 29 | Post Time 6:30 Pacific / 9:30 PM Eastern

Pat O’Brien Stakes | Purse $150,000 | Seven Furlongs | Three Year Olds and Upward

This race is a “Win & You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup and as such, even though eight horses entered, a case can be made for any of them as this is one tough group of sprinters. That being said, top honors in terms of win probability goes to C Z Rocket (5) and Giant Expectations (7) equally. Right behind those two are Flagstaff (4) and La Abidin Citizen (1).

C Z Rocket (5) may turn out to be a fantastic claim for $40K by Peter Miller, who took the six year old out of a winning effort (by nearly five lengths) at Churchill Downs in May. Winning easily at Churchill Downs in June and at Keeneland last month since then, C Z Rocket isn’t really a claiming type horse as he won the 2018 Kelly’s Landing Stakes at Churchill Downs at this seven furlong trip. That field consisted of a number of stakes level horses including Copper Town, True Timber, Nitrous, Borracho and Mr. Money so it can be said that field was as stakes quality as this field with a stakes label. Flavien Prat takes the call, a very good sign, as he’s fighting tooth and nail for the title with Umberto Rispoli. Having won twice at this seven furlong trip, including in the aforementioned Kelly’s Landing Stakes, and in top form with three wins in a row, C Z Rocket gets top billing in this year’s Pat O’Brien Stakes.

Giant Expectations (7) leads the field in career earnings at $1.3 million. He hasn’t been seen since a last of 10 finish (beaten 29 lengths) in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, where he really wasn’t a longshot as his post time odds were 13/1 in a quality field. When you see a race like that in a horse’s history, followed by a layoff, it’s safe to say that’s the race which led to the layoff and therefore it can be ignored. Prior to that, Giant Expectations battled head and head down the entire length of the stretch in the 2019 edition of this race (at 7 to 2 odds) and just missed by a head on the wire. He won the 2017 Pat O’Brien so we know he’s this good, and his workouts for his first race in nine months are top notch so he’s fit. Considering leading jockey Rispoli rides, we can assume Giant Expectations can run back to his effort of last year and that’s why he’s the second most probably contender to win this race.

Flagstaff (4) and Law Abidin Citizen (1) are also strong contenders. Although I will not consider them for win bets I wouldn’t argue if you did. Flagstaff has won two of three tries at this seven furlong trip including the San Carlos Stakes in March. He comes back from almost three months off and that’s not an issue as he missed by a neck in January after the same type of layoff. However, he has earned 112 Equibase Figures in four of his best five races in the past year, and those are a bit short of the 119 figure C Z Rocket earned winning the Kelly’s Landing at this trip and the 118 Giant Expectations earned winning this race in 2018. Law Abidin Citizen ran one of the best races of his career when third in the Bing Crosby Stakes four weeks ago at six furlongs, checking in third of eight with a 113 figure. There are concerns, however, about Del Mar (where he has a 0-0-2 record in three starts) and about seven furlongs (0-2-0 in four starts) so I’ll use him in exotics as there’s a good shot he can be part of the exacta or trifecta.

Betting Strategies-

Win:

C Z Rocket (5) to win at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.

Giant Expectations (7) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box C Z Rocket (5) and Giant Expectations (7)

Box C Z Rocket (5), Giant Expectations (7) and Flagstaff (4)

Box C Z Rocket (5), Giant Expectations (7), Flagstaff (4) and Law Abidin Citizen (1)

Trifectas:

Box C Z Rocket (5), Giant Expectations (7), Flagstaff (4) and Law Abidin Citizen (1)

C Z Rocket (5), Giant Expectations (7) over Box C Z Rocket (5), Giant Expectations (7), Flagstaff (4) and Law Abidin Citizen (1) over C Z Rocket (5), Giant Expectations (7), Flagstaff (4) and Law Abidin Citizen (1), Flagstaff (4) and Law Abidin Citizen (1)