Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 6, 2022

Race 11 at Saratoga | Saturday August 6 | Post Time 6:20 PM Eastern

Caesars Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1 million| One Mile and Three-Sixteenths on Turf | Three Year Olds

Analysis and top contenders:

Stone Age (10) was beaten a head for second in the nearly identical Belmont Derby four weeks ago, with winner Classic Causeway (9) able to control the pace for the entire 10 furlong trip and hang on by three-quarters of a length at 26 to 1. Having earned ALL four of his wins leading from start-to-finish, Classic Causeway can be labeled a “need-the-lead” type but today’s pace scenario is likely to be much different, because Main Event (1) is on the rail and has earned ALL THREE of his wins leading from start to finish, the exact same record as Emmanuel (3). Even Royal Patronage (7) could be a need-the-lead types, as he chased Classic Causeway in second from the start in the Belmont Derby before fading to fifth, and the comment for all three of his wins (in Europe) is “led” or “straight to lead.”

That leads us back to Stone Age, who gets John Velazquez to ride. There’s no knock on world-class jockey Ryan Moore, but Johnny knows the Saratoga turf as good as any jockey riding today, and he should have this colt in position to rally in the middle of the track (likely not six paths wide coming into the stretch as last out), helping Stone Age to come home the last quarter mile in a shade under 23 seconds as he did last out, which should be good enough to win here

Nations Pride (4) was a head in front of Stone Age when the finish came up in the Belmont Derby, and he too was finishing fast, having started in ninth of 12. William Buick gets the mount and rode the colt to a seven length win in the Newmarket Stakes at 10 furlongs in April, which was a big effort but in a field of four. Likely to go to post at lower odds as compared to Stone Age, Nations Pride will likely not be as good of a win wager but must be used as a win contender on all exacta and trifecta tickets played in this race.

Annapolis (6) actually opens at lower odds than the top two although he’s never run in a grade 1 race. He’s won three of four and enters the race off a win, but that was in the non-graded Manila Stakes and his bet two efforts have yielded 100 and 99 Equibase figures compared to 108, 112 for Stone Age and 108, 106 for Nations Pride. Furthermore, Annapolis has never run farther than a mile and one-sixteenth so is giving up experience to the other two.

From a long shot perspective, the horse to pay attention to is Grand Sonata (2), opening at 15 to 1. He ran evenly in the Belmont Derby when third, fourth, third and finally fourth, but he wasn’t disgraced one bit as he was a neck and nose from runner-up Nations Pride and a neck from Stone Age. He is trained by Todd Pletcher the same as Annapolis but goes to post at about seven times the odds which doesn’t make sense considering that was a career best effort and the colt had been first, second or third in four straight stakes races on turf before the near miss for third last time out.

Win bets: Starting with Stone Age (10) at 5 to 2 odds or higher, I will consider win bets. Nation’s Pride (4) also can be bet at 5 to 2 or more but considering he was the 2 to 1 favorite in the Belmont Derby I’m doubtful he will meet that threshold.

Grand Sonata (2) can absolutely be bet to win, for a lower amount than on Stone Age, at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Grand Sonata (2), Nations Pride (4) and Stone Age (10).

Box Grand Sonata (2), Annapolis (6) and Stone Age (10). Note: this bet is designed to maximize profit because if 2 and 10 finish first and second we win both bets.

Stone Age (10) over Grand Sonata (2), Nations Pride (4), Annapolis (6) and Royal Patronage (7).