Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | August 7, 2021

Race 9 at Saratoga | August 7 | Post Time 5:10 PM Eastern

Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $1 Million | One and Three-Sixteenths Miles | Three Year Olds

Just like the Belmont Derby Invitational one month ago, the contingent from Europe has a significant edge in this year’s Saratoga Derby Invitational. European runners usually have a bigger kick than their American counterparts and they can switch gears much more quickly, as evidenced by Bolshoi Ballet (6) winning last month, with Tokyo Gold (another import) finishing second. Bolshoi Ballet is back again and figures prominently, but State of Rest (9), who opens at 10 to 1 compared to 2 to 1 for Bolshoi Ballet, can absolutely post the upset so is the slightly preferred choice, with Bolshoi Ballet and Cadillac (4) the other two horses which comprise the bulk of the probability to win this race.

State of Rest (9) finished third, beaten a length, in the Group 2 Bet365 Champagne Stakes last summer, a career best effort at the time, then one month later found really heavy (wet) ground not to his liking in the Futurity Trophy Stakes. Rested eight months and allowed to mature both physically and mentally, State of Rest may have been best in the Dubai Duty Free Celebration Stakes near the end of June in Ireland, because in a field of 11 he was blocked until very late in the race when he had to shift HARD off the rail and regain momentum before coming on strongly to miss the runner-up spot by a nose while the winner got a dream trip on the rail. This being his second start off that layoff and as a three year old, and getting John Velazquez to ride, if State of Rest can improve just a bit off that last effort he can post the upset.

Bolshoi Ballet (6) won as the favorite in the Belmont Derby, showing a big turn of foot starting on the turn when sixth of nine and bounding off in the last eighth of a mile. Having won the Derby Trial Stakes in May, he was favored to win the Irish Derby but did not run well at all. The rebound was expected in the Belmont Derby and with Ryan Moore coming back from Europe to ride again there is little doubt Bolshoi Ballet has what it takes to win his second $1 million grade 1 race at 10 furlongs in a row.

Cadillac (4) had won two of three in Ireland as a two year old including the Group 2 Juvenile Stakes before a fifth place effort in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes in October. Even off that poor effort he was sent to the U.S. to contend in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and decently regarded at 4 to 1 but after a big mid-race rally from eighth to fifth he ran evenly and ended up fourth in a field of 14. Similar to State of Rest, Cadillac was allowed time off to mature and returning at the end of June following nearly eight months off, he did not disappoint when winning the Group 3 International Stakes in a field of 10. In that race, Cadillac sat mid-pack in fifth early, found a seam to the two path late and battle head and head with three other horses to prevail. Jockey Shane Foley has ridden him in all six races and comes over to ride, and the 108 equivalent Equibase Figure from that race should be improved upon in his second start of 2021, so it stacks up perfectly with the 107 figure Bolshoi Ballet earned (and can improve upon) in the Belmont Derby, and the 110 figure State of Rest earned in the Champagne Stakes last summer and can run back to second off the layoff.

Win bets:

State of Rest (9) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

“IF” Cadillac (4) is 2 to 1 or higher odds near post time, he can be bet as well.

As far as a win bet goes, Bolshoi Ballet (6) opens at 2 to 1 and is likely to go to post at lower odds so we will have to profit from his win in the exacta and/or trifecta.

Exactas:

Box Cadillac (4), Bolshoi Ballet (6) and State of Rest (9)

Trifecta:

Cadillac (4), Bolshoi Ballet (6) and State of Rest (9) over ALL over Cadillac (4), Bolshoi Ballet (6) and State of Rest (9)

(Played in combination with the exacta, we win if any two of the three contenders finish first and second or first and third. If the contenders finish first, second and third in any order we win both bets).