Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 11, 2021

Race 5 at Turfway Park | Saturday December 11 | Post Time 8:14 PM Eastern

My Charmer Stakes | Purse $100,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward

Bumble of Love (10) is a lightly raced filly who likes to win, evidenced by a five for 11 career record, including four wins in seven races this year and over $150K in earnings. She has won on turf and dirt and I see no issue with transitioning to the all-weather track at Turfway. Rodney Prescott has been aboard for four of her five wins and rides her today and although third in two of her last five those were on sloppy dirt tracks while the wins came on turf, the best of which earned a 95 Equibase figure which is very much comparable to horses in here opening at much lower odds, such as Adventuring (5), who opens at 2 to 1 and earned 97, 92 and 98 figures in her most recent three starts and a 92 figure in her only previous race on all-weather. Bumble of Love was beaten three-quarters of a length for second in her last start, and the horse who finished just in front of her has since come back to win so that’s another reason this gal has a shot to post the upset in this race.

Breeze Rider (6) LOVES to win races and has basically the same win percentage as Bumble of Love but on twice as many starts as she is 10 for 23 in her career. She’s won six of 11 this year including a stakes race at Fair Grounds last month on grass. Like Bumble of Love, Breeze Rider has never run on all-weather but her form and love for the turf suggests that won’t be any problem. Jockey E. T. Baird rode her twice this year and both time she won so there is every reason to suspect another “A” effort good enough to add to her strong record of “WINNING SPIRIT” in the My Charmer Stakes.

Adventuring (5) and Art of Almost (11) are also contenders to win but don’t offer the value (return for the risk) for win bets as either of the aforementioned fillies do, as they open at odds of 2 to 1 and 4 to 1, compared to 15 to 1 and 9 to 2 for Bumble of Love and Breeze Rider.

Win bets:

I would consider win bets on BOTH Bumble of Love (10) and Breeze Rider (6) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Bumble of Love (10) and Breeze Rider (6) over ALL

Box Bumble of Love (10), Breeze Rider (6), Adventuring (5) and Art of Almost (11)

Trifectas:

Bumble of Love (10), Breeze Rider (6), Adventuring (5) and Art of Almost (11) over Bumble of Love (10), Breeze Rider (6), Adventuring (5) and Art of Almost (11) over Bumble of Love (10), Breeze Rider (6), Adventuring (5), Art of Almost (11), So Darn Hot (2), Fate Factor (9), Dreidel (13) and Three Flamingos (14)