Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 12, 2020

Race 10 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday December 12 | Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern

Ft. Lauderdale Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

Pace: Although a perfect three-for-three on the Gulfstream Park turf course, Halladay (10) earned his last four wins leading from start to finish, often running the field off their feet in the early stages then coasting along to the wire. In the Ft. Lauderdale, Halladay draws the extreme outside post and should have a number of horses inside of him also vying for the lead such as Factor This (9), who also breaks from the outside,  and Somelikeithotbrown (1).  That makes for an interesting pace scenario which opens up the door for a number of other contenders. Better still, with Factor This opening at 5/2 odds on the morning line and with Halladay not far behind at 7/2, there could be exceptional betting value on those contenders who don’t need the lead to win.

Delaware (2) may have turned a corner in his most recent race, his fourth since importing from Europe. After an eighth place finish at Belmont in June in a stakes race in his North American debut, Delaware finished second in a high level allowance race then shipped to Woodbine to run in the King Edward Stakes, where he was sent to post as the favorite but only managed to finish fifth. Given three months off, Delaware returned in the Artie Schiller Stakes in New York and proceeded to run his best race in the states to date, rallying late to miss winning by a neck and a head. The 107 Equibase Figure is much higher than the 92 figure 2019 Ft. Lauderdale winner Instilled Regard earned and the effort is likely to be improved upon in the colt’s second start back after three months away from the races. North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides Delaware right back after his big effort last month. With a contested early pace battle forecast between Halladay, Factor This and Somelikeithotbrown, it is very possible Delaware will be up in time to win.

Spooky Channel (8) will likely be much further back in the early stages than Delaware, but he has the kick to post the upset, just as he did last January when winning the William L. McKnight Handicap. That effort earned a career-best 117 figure, which he duplicated in May winning in a stakes quality allowance race. Jockey Julien Leparoux was aboard for both wins and rides again in the Ft. Lauderdale which portends well for Spooky Channel potentially to post the upset with a last to first rally.

Doswell (3) has never finished worse than second in six career turf races, at distances ranging from seven furlongs to a mile and one-quarter. When returning from an 11-month  layoff in August and after changing trainers to Barclay Tagg, Doswell ran the best race of his career with a 97 figure. Nearly two months later in October, Doswell ran even better, improving to a 104 figure. Since shipping to Florida from New York, Doswell put in a sensational workout of five eighths of a mile on turf in 58.6 which was the best of 17 on the day at the distance, suggesting even better may be forthcoming in the Ft. Lauderdale.

Win betting strategy:

Delaware (2) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

For a smaller amount, I would not hesitate to wager on Spooky Channel (8) (who opens at 12/1) at 4 to 1 or more, and on Doswell (3) (who opens at 20/1) at 6 to 1 or more.

Exactas: Box Delaware (2), Doswell (3) and Spooky Channel (8).

Also, an “exacta as a place bet” is warranted on Doswell, who had finished first or second in six of seven races: ALL over Doswell (2).

Trifectas:

The trifecta is meant to compliment the exacta. Whereas we win the exacta if any two of the three horses finish first or second, we are playing to win the trifecta if any two of the three horses finish first and third: Delaware (2), Doswell (3) and Spooky Channel (8) over ALL over Delaware (2), Doswell (3) and Spooky Channel (8).