Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 18, 2021

Race 5 at Turfway Park | Saturday December 18 | Post Time 8:14 PM Eastern

Prairie Bayou Stakes | Purse $100,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Years Old and Upward

Hush of a Storm (5) is a lightly raced horse with seven starts under his belt, including three wins. Those three wins all came in succession at Turfway Park from December of last year through this past February, culminating in a strong effort in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at this distance. Moving to dirt for the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in April, Hush of a Storm finished a badly beaten seventh then went on the shelf for nearly seven months. He came back trying turf for the first time in a stakes which was way too much to ask and finished fifth of nine, but upon returning to Turfway last month improved markedly when rallying for third, beaten just a half-length for second. The pattern for improvement is unmistakable third off the layoff and blinkers go on. For the very strong barn of William Morey, who has won at a 24% rate on all-weather tracks over the past two years, Hush of a Storm appears capable of returning to stakes winning form over a track he obviously prefers.

Big Dreaming (2) is the other horse which I feel has the bulk of the probability to succeed in this race. With a very strong 5-3-1 record in just 11 career starts, Big Dreaming tried the all-weather surface at Turfway Park for the first time just 15 days ago, rallying from fourth to win easily by four lengths in the same race Hush of a Storm finished third in. Jockey Gerardo Corrales was in the saddle for the first time in that race and rides back, and as with Hush of a Storm, we should expect Big Dreaming to run even better in his second start at the meeting.

Honorable mention goes to Mr Dumas (3) and Megacity (1), who finished third and first, respectively, in a high rated classified allowance (right below stakes level) on grass at Keeneland in October. Big Dreaming finished second in that race, splitting Megacity and Mr Dumas, before improving to win at Turfway Park 15 days ago, and another horse in the field came back to win his next start, suggesting the race in October was very productive, a key race, from which others should run well. The only negatives for Mr Dumas and for Megacity is they have never run on an all-weather surface, which sometimes takes a race to get used to. On the other hand, Big Dreaming did not need a race to get used to the surface as he won on it right out of that turf race, but then again having a race over the track may give Big Dreaming (as well as Hush of a Storm) a slight edge on both Mr Dumas and Megacity. Just the same, the will be used on some exacta tickets we play.

Also of note is Snapper Sinclair (4), who has earned $1.8 million in his career and who is also trying an all-weather surface for the first time. Overmatched badly in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in his most recent start, Snapper Sinclair won the TVG Stakes at Kentucky Downs two before that (in September) and missed by a half-length in the Eddie D Stakes, both on turf. He put in a very strong workout at Turfway coming into the race and has the class to compete with these.

Win bets:

Hush of a Storm (5) and Big Dreaming (2) at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

(I would bet both to win if they are 4 to 1 or higher. Otherwise I’d bet the one at the highest odds of the pair near post time).

Exactas:

Hush of a Storm (5) and Big Dreaming (2) over ALL.

(This strategy paid off very well in the My Charmer Stakes last week when one of two exacta key horse, Breeze Rider, won and 46 to 1 shot Good Fight finished second).

Additional Exactas:

Hush of a Storm (5) and Big Dreaming (2) over Hush of a Storm (5), Big Dreaming (2), Megacity (1), Mr Dumas (3) and Snapper Sinclair (4).

Optionally, we can play the reverse of that exacta, if even only for $1, which is

Hush of a Storm (5), Big Dreaming (2), Megacity (1), Mr Dumas (3) and Snapper Sinclair (4) over Hush of a Storm (5) and Big Dreaming (2)