Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 19, 2020

Race 11 at Fair Grounds | Saturday December 19 | Post Time 5:52 PM Eastern

Blushing K. D. Stakes | Purse $75,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Three Year Olds and Upward

Dalika (3) may be a fairly legitimate favorite, opening at 3/1, but in this 12 horse field she’s unlikely to be a prohibitive favorite. She faced much tougher when last seen in October in the Grade 1 First Lady Stakes, but was a non-threatening fourth. Still, even that effort if repeated may be good enough to win at this non-graded stakes level. Before the First Lady, Dalika won the One Dreamer Stakes at Kentucky Downs so that would be an effort good enough to win here as well. Still, she has four wins and four runner-up finishes in 15 races so we should take care not to wager on her at low odds. Just the same, she must be used on exacta tickets, but with some horses with legitimate shots to be part of the exacta at high odds.

Strike Me Fancy (4) and Aife (9) are two such horses, and given they both come from the barn of Matt Shirer and both open at high odds I think we should consider both if we consider one. Combined, the two mares have four wins on the Fair Grounds turf course from 9 races, so they both have proven a fondness for the course. Strike My Fancy was beaten a neck in the Ellis Park Turf Stakes in July with Colby Hernandez in the Saddle as today, and that’s the race I think she can run back to today, or the win at Fair Grounds two before that in February, to be a contender at the wire. Aife won over the course in March under Shaun Bridgmohan, who rides back here and who rode her to a runner-up finish in her most recent turf races in September. This mare has been first or second in 16 of 29 career races including a near win in the Lady Canterbury Stakes in July, another effort which proves she could outrun her starting double digit odds.

Other contenders, who we will consider for exotic wagers when pairing them with the three main contenders above, are Quick Witted (1), Curlin’s Journey (5), Kuora (6), Secret Message (8) and Valentines Day (11).

Betting strategy:

Dalika (3) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

As its mostly unlikely Dalika will be 3 to 1 near post time, I think the better play is the following exacta:

Dalika (3) over Quick Witted (1), Strike My Fancy (4) Curlin’s Journey (5), Kuora (6), Secret Message (8), Aife (9) and Valentines Day (11).

Then we should also play the reverse of that exacta as Dalika may finish second as she’s done as many times as she’s won before:

Quick Witted (1), Strike My Fancy (4) Curlin’s Journey (5), Kuora (6), Secret Message (8), Aife (9) and Valentines Day (11) over Dalika (3).

For a smaller amount, I would not hesitate to make a win bet on Strike My Fancy (4) and on Aife (9) to win at 5 to 1 odds or higher.

As a general rule, when betting horses like the two above at 10/1 or more, I think playing the exacta as a place bet is a much better play than a place bet, as proven last week when Doswell (15/1) was beaten by a 16/1 shot:

ALL over Strike My Fancy (4) and Aife (9).

Trifectas:

These could be a grand slam plays, but they are not inexpensive-

Dalika (3), Strike My Fancy (4) and Aife (9) over Quick Witted (1), Dalika (3), Strike My Fancy (4) and Aife (9) over ALL

And also

Dalika (3), Strike My Fancy (4) and Aife (9) over ALL over Quick Witted (1), Dalika (3), Strike My Fancy (4) and Aife (9)

(The two wagers above cover the possibility two of the three horses finish first and second, or first and third.)