Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 26, 2020

Race 8 at Santa Anita | Saturday December 26 | Post Time 5:43 PM Eastern (2:43 Pacific)

La Brea Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $300,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies, Three Years Old

Stellar Sound (11) has big potential to post the mild upset in this year’s La Brea Stakes, opening at 5/1. She won her career debut sprinting in August, 2019 but only has one other win (in an allowance race) to her credit since then. She was in the Baffert barn until sometime between her third place finish in the Las Virgenes Stakes in February and a very strong comeback win in October. The win off an eight month layoff came around two turns, at Santa Anita and against older and she earned a career best 110 Equibase Figure winning by seven lengths. To put that into perspective, morning line favorite Finite (5) earned a 109 figure missing by a neck in the identical Raven Run Stakes in October.

In her only start since the comeback Stellar Sound was sent to post as the 6 to 5 favorite 20 days ago, also versus older, in the Bayakoa Stakes at Los Alamitos. She broke last of six in that race then rushed up to lead coming out of the far turn. As would be expected, that mis-expenditure of energy took its toll and she ended up third. Cutting back to one turn, moving to three year olds only, and getting the outside post here should enable Victor Espinoza (up for both starts since the layoff) to get her to relax and watch what type of pace scenario unfolds in front of her, and if Stellar Sound can rebound to the form shown on October 2, she can win.

Finite (5) has done little wrong in 11 career starts, winning six and finishing second in three others. She has run two “A” races in a row since moving back to dirt following nine months away from March to September. In the first of the two she rallied form seventh of eight to miss by a neck in the Raven Run then she beat older in the Chilukki Stakes last month at Churchill Downs, winning easily by two and one-half lengths in a field of nine. That race was a one turn mile to its nearly identical to this seven furlong sprint and so we should expect Finite to be a strong contender for all the marbles here.

Fair Maiden (9) and Himiko (3), both deserve consideration for any and all bets we make involving this race, opening at 12/1 and 8/1, respectively. Fair Maiden showed her quality last summer (2019) when breaking her maiden by 14 lengths versus males, then won the Catch a Glimpse Stakes (on turf). She almost won the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes last fall then ran poorly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and took a well needed rest. Returning to the races for a fall campaign, Fair Maiden won her comeback in September with a 100 figure then ran into a lot of trouble in the same stakes last month won by Merneith (2), with Motivated Seller (8) second. In that race, Fair Maiden was squeezed at the stat to lose her usually good position as she had not been further back then third in nearly every one of her races. Moving up to contend, she was checked in traffic then wanted to run on but it was too late. Still, she passed more than half the field to end up fourth. I think she’s going to get a better ride from hustling jockey Gonzalez in this race and that gives her a shot to run a lot better than her double digit odds suggest she will. Himiko returned from three months off in October and ran the best race of her career to win easily here at Santa Anita with a 93 figure then improved nicely to 101 last month. Gonzalez gets off to ride Fair Maiden but Prat getting on is fine. Like Finite and Stellar Sound, Himiko beat older last out and since she is on a pattern to take another step forward she has a strong possibility to compete with some much more seasoned horses.

For the trifecta ticket below I’m going to also use Golden Principal (10). She’s one of four saddled by Baffert and cutting back from a mile to seven furlongs off a win versus older, which is just a cut below the main four contenders above. However, she’s on a pattern to step up competitively to this level.

Win betting strategy:

Stellar Sound (11) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Finite (5) can be bet at 5 to 2 or more, but it’s unlikely her odds will rise to that level so we will try to make a profit from her winning in exotic wagers below.

Fair Maiden (9) and Himiko (3) can be bet at odds of 4/1 or more but for a smaller amount than on Stellar Sound or Finite.

Exactas:

The first exacta is the “exacta as a win bet” play on Finite as her odds may be too low for a win bet. This enables us to turn likely 8 to 5 odds into possibly a 3 to 1 return for the same amount as we might otherwise bet to win: Finite (5) over Merneith (2), Himiko (3), Secret Keeper (4), Biddy Duke (6), Motivated Seller (8), Fair Maiden (9), Golden Principal (10) and Stellar Sound (11).

Box Stellar Sound (11) and Finite (5).

Box Stellar Sound (11), Finite (5), Fair Maiden (9) and Himiko (3).

Trifecta:

Box Himiko (3), Finite (5), Fair Maiden (9), Golden Principal (10) and Stellar Sound (11)