Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 3, 2022

Race 7 at Turfway Park | Saturday December 3 | Post Time 3:45 PM Eastern

Holiday Inaugural Stakes | Purse $125,000 | Six Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward

The relatively new (about three years old) all-weather surface and big purses have immensely changed the makeup of the races at Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky from just a few short years ago. The facility has also changed, with superb high definition broadcast and graphics and a state of the art GPS tracking and timing system. The result is many races, like this one, with a big field and nice opportunity for profit because there is no heavy favorite. 

Top contenders:

Among the group of 12 that is likely to run, including the possibility of either of two also-eligibles if any of the main group of 12 should scratch, Miner’s Queen (7) gets first look because in spite of having won three of her last four races she opens at 15/1. One of those wins came in the very last race of the Keeneland meeting last October, at odds of 26 to 1 under jockey Luis Saez, securing the riding title for the meeting in the very last race. All of her wins have come on grass but I’m not concerned about the transition to the all-weather surface as trainer Hernandez has won with three of his last four starters in sprints moving from turf to this surface. Jockey Sanjur gets back on after two races with other jockeys and is a perfect two-for-two aboard the hard knocking filly, who has been first or second in seven of 17 races in her career. Formerly in the care of top trainer Steve Asmussen, Miner’s Queen changed trainers privately this past May and has won three of four on turf since then (her two dirt races are to be ignored) and the 104 Equibase Speed Figure earned in her most recent race, with an equivalent class level to this stakes race as it carried at $137K purse, means Miner’s Queen has every right to win again and to post the upset in doing so.

Thundering Creed (4) has won two of three races over the Turfway Park surface, a little under one year ago and then in January of this year. She then finished third in a stakes here before five straight dirt races, in which she finished second twice. She got back into TOP form when moved to turf in September, first taking a stakes quality allowance race at Kentucky Downs before a bang-up second in the Franklin County Stakes, from which winner Caravel posted the upset win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint one month later. The 103 figure Thundering Creed earned in the Franklin is amongst the fastest last races in this group and she’s in line for another top effort, once again piloted by Joe Rocco.

Ready to Venture (9) imported to the U.S. this past March and has won or placed in five of eight races since, including a perfect two-for-two record on all-weather like she runs on today. She won the $100K HBPA Stakes in Pennsylvania on the surface at the end of October, around two turns, and has won sprinting as well so shortening up is no issue, and she gets Gerardo Corrales to ride, one of the top jockeys the past few years at Turfway Park

Dynasty of Her Own (2) brings more depth to the field, as she’s won 12 of 27 races including 11 of 15 on an all-weather surface. She shipped out of California this past spring and got back into the winner’s circle in her fourth start for trainer Beattie in mid-October, with a sharp win from just off the pace. If she doesn’t win she never finishes second but opening at 8 to 1 she’s yet another horse with potential for profit if she wins here.

Beat the System (13) is definitely worth a look if she draws in from the also-eligible list as she opens at 20 to 1. She won two of her first 10 races then moved to the barn of good trainer Morey in September, showing a big late kick rallying from seventh to win at Woodbine on an all-weather track. That brought her record on the surface to four for 11. There’s a lot of “early” pace types here so her late kick should look very good if she runs, and with Morey having a fine 7 for 24 record in stakes races in the past year or so, this gal is another we might be kicking ourselves late if we didn’t make at least a token win bet at high odds.

Win bets:

This is absolutely the right race for betting two or three of the contenders to win. When betting multiple horses to win, we are absolutely cutting into our profit as only one can win, but we increase our chances of making a nice profit nevertheless.

In this case, I would consider two, maybe three win bets at 4 to 1 or more on these contenders: Miner’s Queen (7), Thundering Creed (4), Ready to Venture (9), Dynasty of Her Own (2) and Beat the System (13).

Additionally, if any of those horses are 10/1 or higher, instead of a place bet I’d bet an exacta consisting of that horse in second with all in first, for example ALL over Miner’s Queen (7).

Exactas:

As Miner’s Queen has been pretty consistent by finishing first or second in seven of 17 starts, this exacta key box could be well worth the risk: Miner’s Queen (7) over ALL and (the opposite) ALL over Miner’s Queen

Box Dynasty of Her Own (2), Thundering Creed (4), Ready to Venture (9) and Beat the System (13). This exacta assumes playing the Miner’s Queen over ALL and ALL over Miner’s Queen exactas. If not, then add Miner’s Queen to the four horse exacta box, making it a five horse exacta box. The cost for the $1 minimum is $20 and may be well worth the risk considering three of the horses open at odds of 8 to 1 or higher.