Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 4, 2021

Race 7 at Aqueduct | Saturday December 4 | Post Time 2:43 PM Eastern

Go For Wand Handicap – Grade 3| Purse $250,000 | One Mile | Fillies and Mares, Three Years Old and Upward

Sharp Starr (7) gets top billing in this year’s Go For Wand Handicap because she won her most recent race in the same manner she won her last start before winning the 2020 Go For Wand. Last fall as a three year old Sharp Starr had broken her maiden in July in the fourth start of her career but did so at this one turn mile trip and impressively by five lengths. After three tries around two-turns she returned to the one turn for an allowance race last November and won by 15 lengths. Four weeks later she was well regarded as the second betting choice in the Go For Wand and got up by a neck to win under Jose Ortiz, earning a strong 105 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Ortiz had not ridden Sharp Starr in four races since then until getting back in the saddle on October 30 when the filly won the Empire Distaff Handicap by three lengths with a 103 figure. That was a one turn route at a mile and one-sixteenth and sets up Sharp Starr nicely to win this race for the second year in a row under Ortiz.

Lady Rocket (2) is the other horse with the majority of the probability to win this race in my opinion. Only worse than second two times in 10 career starts, Lady Rocket has won three of her last four including the non-graded Pumpkin Pie Stakes (one of two split divisions) on October 31, earning  101 figure in the process very close to the 103 figure Sharp Starr earned one day earlier and also at Belmont. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode her that day and rides again. Although Lady Rocket has never run at this one mile trip, the way she won at seven furlongs in August when victorious in the Pink Ribbon Stakes (which was run around two turns at Charles Town) and the way she won the Pumpkin Pie Stakes at the end of October suggest the additional furlong will be no problem.

Bella Vita (3) gets honorable mention as she’s very consistent, with four wins and five runner-up efforts in 13 races in her career. Like Lady Rocket, Bella Vita has won two of her last three and the most recent was also at seven furlongs. That was in California where she won the Betty Grable Stakes, a statebred restricted race similar to the Empire Distaff which Sharp Starr won on October 30. Although the 95 figure earned in the Betty Grable is a bit short of the figures the top two contenders earned, Bella Vita earned a 109 figure in her prior dirt sprint in August which would win this race if repeated. Of note is the fact Joel Rosario takes the call for the first time, considering Rosario is on a quest to break the all-time earnings record of a jockey in a single year and every mount he (and agent Ron Anderson) chooses from now through the end of the year deserve extra scrutiny.

Win bets:

Sharp Starr (7) to win at odds of 6 to 5 or higher.

Note: This type of bet is what is referred to as a “low odds overlay” because even though the odds near post time may be low they are likely to be higher than what probability suggests they should be.

For the record, minimum odds for a win bet on Lady Rocket (2) are 8 to 5.

Exactas:

Sharp Starr (7) over Lady Rocket (2) and Bella Vita (3)

Box Sharp Starr (7) and Lady Rocket (2)

Box Sharp Starr (7) and Bella Vita (3)