Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | December 5, 2020

Race 9 at Aqueduct | Saturday December 5 | Post Time 3:44 PM Eastern

Demoiselle Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $150,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Fillies, Two Years Old

Millefeuille (3) can and should be able to post the mild upset and win this important race for two year old fillies. This very well-bred daughter of Curlin finished second (beaten just three-quarters of a length) in her career debut in September then won easily by four lengths second time out in October. Both wins came in races run at a mile around one turn and there’s no doubt she will like this nine furlong trip even more. Bill Mott has an incredibly good record with these types, having won five of 11 stakes the past two years off a maiden win, and one of those came in last year’s Demoiselle with Lake Avenue, on the same pattern Millefeuille presents today (second in her debut, maiden win). With Rosario riding back and the heavy favorite no standout, Millefeuille present with solid low odds overlay value, opening at 7 to 2.

Malathaat (1) is the favorite mentioned previously, opening at 4 to 5 off a visually impressive seven and three-quarter length win. Just like Millefeuille, Malathaat earned the win at a mile around one turn but hers came in the Tempted Stakes, following a win in her debut (at the same distance). Although impressive in the Tempted, Malathaat only faced a field of four other horses that day and gets a few more to content with, as well as is trying two turns for the first time. She’s also a daughter of Curlin so should handle the distance, but her odds preclude consideration as a win bet so we’ll have to find other pools to use her in to try to make a profit.

Next comes Dollar Mountain (5), Malibu Curl (4) and Traffic Lane (2), all who can be used on exacta and trifecta tickets as they should run well but are a cut below the top two in terms of probability to win. All three broke their maidens in their most recent start and can improve.

Win betting strategy:

Millefeuille (3) to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.

Exactas: Millefeuille (3) and Malathaat (1) over Millefeuille (3), Malathaat (1), Traffic Lane (2), Malibu Curl (4) and Dollar Mountain (5).

Trifectas:

Millefeuille (3) and Malathaat (1) over Millefeuille (3) and Malathaat (1) over Traffic Lane (2), Malibu Curl (4) and Dollar Mountain (5).