Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 12, 2022

Race 10 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday February 12 | Post Time 5:56 PM Eastern

Razorback Handicap | Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Four Year Olds and Upward

This could be a MONEY MAKING race because in spite of all nine having a right to win, Popular Kid (1), who opens at 20/1, and Last Samurai (7), who opens at 8/1, have a much bigger probability to succeed than is suggested by their morning line odds.

Rated R Superstar (4) posted the 25 to 1 upset in the local prep for this race, the Fifth Season Stakes, four weeks ago over the track, The nine year old also had a big 2021 campaign at eight, winning or placing in six of 10 and earning $329K. He also loves Oaklawn, evidenced by nine first or second place finished in 19 races and more than $630K earned. Certainly, opening at 8 to 1, Rated R Superstar certainly has a shot to win at decent odds again, but there’s another horse which can do today when Rated R Superstar did in the Fifth Season.

Popular Kid (1) is the horse which can do the same thing in this year’s Razorback, opening at 20/1. He’s an eight year old who went 4-2-2 in 11 races last year, earning nearly $200K. More importantly, since joining the Davis barn last February when claimed for a measly $20k, Popular Kid has four wins and one runner-up finish in six dirt races. One was last September off a two and one-half month layoff, identical to the one he’s coming back from today, and he gets the ground saving rail similar to the inside post he got for that win and the inside post Rated R Superstar used to his advantage to win the Fifth Season. When winning that race last summer off the layoff, Popular Kid earned a 107 Equibase figure which is as good as the 109 figure Lone Rock (3) (who opens at 3 to 1) earned winning the Tinsel Stakes when last seen and not far afield of the 110 figure Plainsman (8) (who opens at 7 to 2) earned when third in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap when last seen in December. On his way back from the layoff, Popular Kid has worked exceptionally well, including a best of 86 half-mile a few weeks ago. So, to summarize, with a great post, having not run a bad race on dirt all year last year, with a pair of wins at Oaklawn and with competitive speed figures, Popular Kid has a big shot to run well enough to win at high odds.

Last Samurai (7) won the Poinsettia Stakes in his most recent start, on December 11, with a 107 figure and as mentioned regarding Popular Kid that’s competitive with horse at much lower starting odds. More specifically, that stakes win was no different than the win by Lone Rock in the Tinsel Stakes but Lone Rock opens at 3 to 1 compared to 8 to 1 for Last Samurai. We can only hope that odds disparity holds up. Last Samurai missed winning the similar Grade 3 Greenwood Cup Stakes last September by a neck, two before the Poinsettia. Jon Court has been his regular rider all year including two wins and two near misses, and as a four year old, Last Samurai has every right to run even better than he did in his last start as a three year old. With a strong three furlong blowout workout leading to the race, this colt gives us a second very good horse at out of line odds to help us make a profit in this race.   

Win bets:

Popular Kid (1) AND Last Samurai (7) to win at odds of 9 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Popular Kid (1) and Last Samurai (7) over ALL

ALL over Popular Kid (1) and Last Samurai (7)

(At the $1 minimum, the cost of both bets is $32. We win both bets if Popular Kid and Last Samurai finish first and second).

However, if you make the win bets it is optional to play the first exacta because they serve the same purpose. The second exacta serves as an “exacta as a place bet” and likely has a bigger profit potential than the same amount bet to place on either Popular Kid or Last Samurai.