Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 19, 2022

Race 12 at Fair Grounds | Saturday February 19 | Post Time 6:27 PM Eastern

Rachel Alexandra Stakes | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Fillies, Three Years Old

Top contenders:

Awake at Midnyte (9) ships out from California for top trainer Doug O’Neill, who will saddle Slow Down Andy in the Risen Star Stakes about 30 minutes after the Rachel Alexandra Stakes. Slow Down Andy won the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity on December 11 and it appears Awake at Midnyte has been out working her male counterpart in their two most recent workouts, which is quite impressive. Awake at Midnyte has her own top credentials, having stretched out to a mile (on turf) in only the second start of her career last fall in the Grade 3 Jimmy Durante Stakes, coming up a nose shy of winning at the end. Then in the very highly rated Grade 2 Santa Ynez Stakes last month, Awake at Midnyte rallied from fourth with a quarter mile to run and missed by under a length. The 98 Equibase Speed Figure was the best last race figure in the field and is logically going to be improved upon as the filly stretches out to two turns. As a daughter of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, and out of a Union Rags (second in the 2012 Belmont Stakes), Awake at Midnyte should have no issues with the added distance, particularly as Slow Down Andy is also by Nyquist and won the Los Alamitos Futurity at this distance. As such, Awake at Midnyte may be the one to beat in this race.

Dream Lith (4), La Crete (1), North County (2) and Hidden Connection (11) all have some probability to succeed here and if the odds are high enough I would consider win bets on them, but for smaller amounts than on Awake at Midnyte. I think they all should be used on some exacta and trifecta tickets as well. Dream Lith won the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes at the end of November and starts her three year old campaign here. Blinkers were added for that last race and the result was a nice rally from sixth, improving to a career-best 93 figure which is in range of the 98 figure Awake at Midnyte earned last month but it would be difficult to imaging Dream Lith leap-frogging Awake at Midnyte in this situation. Similarly, North County won the Untapable Stakes at the end of December, at Fair Grounds and around two turns, with an 89 figure. She’s unbeaten in three starts and the 93 figure earned before that in late October was also very good. La Crete is undefeated in two starts and makes her second after two months off so is very likely to improve over the 89 figure effort earned on January 22. She’s a half-sister to Clariere, winner of the 2020 Rachel Alexandra Stakes, who won the race in her third career start which is what La Crete is attempting to do. Hidden Connection may be disadvantaged by the extreme outside post as she has tactical speed but that did not stop her from winning the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes in September when breaking from the nine post in a 10 horse field. That nine length win earned a career-best 90 figure. She didn’t run nearly as well when fourth and beaten 13 lengths in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies but she did win at first asking last summer and has been working spectacularly well so must be respected.  

Win bets:

Awake at Midnyte (9) to win at 9 to 5 or more.

I would consider a smaller win bet on Dream Lith (4) and on La Crete (1) at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Awake at Midnyte (9) over La Crete (1), North County (2), Dream Lith (4) and Hidden Connection (11).

Trifectas: ($0.50 minimum)

Awake at Midnyte (9) over La Crete (1), North County (2), Dream Lith (4) and Hidden Connection (11) over ALL.

Awake at Midnyte (9) over ALL over La Crete (1), North County (2), Dream Lith (4) and Hidden Connection (11)