Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 26, 2022

Race 11 at Oaklawn Park | Saturday February 26 | Post Time 5:22 PM Eastern

Rebel Stakes | Purse $1 Million | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Top contenders:

Chasing Time (8) could be the horse most capable of posting the upset over heavily favored Newgrange in this year’s Rebel Stakes. Except for a fourth place debut effort last September, the colt has done little wrong in winning two and finishing second in his other two races. His best effort came when stretched out to two turns for the first time on January 14 at Oaklawn. Leading for the first quarter mile, Chasing Time relinquished the lead for the next half-mile before retaking the front with a quick burst of speed to pull away by two and one-half lengths before coasting home by nearly eight lengths in “ridden out” fashion, which is like having nearly a full tank of gas even after the race. The result was a 91 Equibase Speed Figure which could have been higher and puts him in range of the 98 figure Newgrange earned in the Southwest Stakes, which followed a 93 figure effort. It just so happens 93 was the figure Chasing Time earned two before last when winning easily as well. Chasing Time is by relatively new sire Not This Time, whose first foals hit the track in 2020. Yet, two of the sire’s newly turned three year olds like Chasing Time are strong contenders on the 2022 Road to the Kentucky Derby, with Epicenter having just won the Risen Star Stakes last weekend and with Simplification recently second in the Holy Bull Stakes after winning the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. Trainer Steve Asmussen goes to jockey Tyler Gaffalione to ride Chasing Time for the first time and that is of no concern as they have a strong record together of 10 for 39 in the past year. As such, Chasing Time appears to have what it will take to beat the favorite and win the Rebel.

Eighty-six year old trainer D. Wayne Lukas, affectionately known as “The Coach,” and a Hall-of-Fame inductee more than two decades ago in 1999 who has won the Kentucky Derby four times may have a candidate to run in the Derby in Ethereal Road (10), who is likely to go to post in the Rebel at high odds. The son of Quality Road got to run on a fast track around two turns for the very first time last month, in the fourth start of his career. The result was a visually impressive rally from 12^th in the early stages, more than 15 lengths back. At the top of the stretch Ethereal Road was still almost three lengths back before drawing off easily to win by four lengths. The 88 figure earned is 10 points, or about five lengths, slower than the 98 figure Newgrange earned in the Southwest, but the colt is projected to improve at least five points in his second route and if the favorite does not improve, Ethereal Road could run a lot better than his high odds suggest he will. An interesting Race Lens angle is in play here as well. Since January 1 three year olds in graded stakes routes on dirt which just earned their first wins have won four of 11 times. This is because these types of horses must get on the Derby trail now and some of them can improve dramatically from one-race to the next, which is what I’m hoping Ethereal Road will do in this race.

Newgrange (2) earned an 89 figure in his debut, sprinting three-quarters of a mile, and then improved to 93 when stretched out to a mile around two turns in the Sham Stakes on New Year’s Day. Shipping to Oaklawn four weeks later on January 29, Newgrange relaxed in third in the early stages then rallied from fourth early in the stretch to draw off by a length and one-half, improving to a career-best 93 figure. John Velazquez has been aboard in all three starts and rides back. The colt put in a very strong five furlong workout before leaving his home base at Santa Anita which was the best of 46 on the day at the distance. There is no question Newgrange is fit and has the physical and mental ability to win this race. 

Win bets:

Chasing Time (8) to win at 5 to 2 odds or higher.

Ethereal Road (12) to win at odds of 6 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Chasing Time (8), Ethereal Road (10) and Newgrange (2)