Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 27, 2021

Race 12 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday February 27 | Post Time 5:04 PM Eastern

Davona Dale Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile | Fillies, Three Years Old

I’m going to start with Adios Trippi (8), who opens at ridiculously high 15/1 odds in spite of just having dead heated for the win in the Gasparilla Stakes last month at seven furlongs at 4/1 odds. The reason for her double digit odds is Vequist (3) opening at 7/5 odds. That makes sense, given the public will be all over last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner. I’ll get back to why Vequist is a horse I’m taking a stand against later. Back to Adios Trippi, who moved to the red hot (14 for 48 at the meeting) Walder barn before her first local start on New Year’s Day in which she finished third before leading from the start in the Gasparilla and tied on the line for the dead heat. In this race, Adios Trippi appears to be the decided “lone front runner” and can control the tempo from the start, giving her a big shot to hold off the closers.

Among closers who are legitimate win contenders we have Crazy Beautiful (6), Millefeuille (5) and Curlin’s Catch (4). Crazy Beautiful returns off a sixth place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and cuts back to one turn, where she won the Debutante Stakes last summer before a runner-up finish in the Pocahontas Stakes one month later. She won her debut so firing fresh is not an issue and she’s been working well so should fire nicely. Millefeuille comes back from three months off and also ran well fresh, finishing second in a one turn mile just like this one last September. Two later she ran the best race of her career when opening up by three lengths in the stretch in the Demoiselle Stakes, only to be run down by talented Malathaat, still four clear of the third horse. She’s been working steadily for her return. Curlin’s Catch won her three year old debut in January, a one turn mile at Gulfstream like this race, before stretching out to win the two-turn Suncoast Stakes three weeks ago at Tampa Bay Downs. She fits on all counts.

Who doesn’t fit on all counts, or put another way that doesn’t tick all the boxes, is 7/5 starting favorite Vequist, who shows THREE 14 day gaps in her workouts. Apparently the workout on January 23 was in the fog so not recorded (or so I’m told) but then there’s a gap between her 1/30 and 2/13 workouts and another between that 2/13 workout and today’s race. As a grade 1 winner coming back from a layoff, Vequist has nothing to prove by winning this race as it’s just the start of her three year old campaign and my feeling is the trainer is going to race her into top form. Although she could win if she repeats her Breeders’ Cup effort, I don’t see that happening based on the gaps in the workouts and at very low odds I’m definitely going to try to beat her, although I will not leave her off exacta tickets given the odds on Adios Trippi are likely to be high.

I also think it may be worth including Hindsight (9) in the second position on exacta tickets. The filly finished second in her debut last October then won second time out. She may not be probable to win compared to the main contenders but with maturity since last fall she could finish second at high odds.

Betting strategy:

Adios Trippi (8) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exacta: All over Adios Trippi (8) (This is a much better strategy as compared a place bet when a horse is 10/1 or more)

Crazy Beautiful (6) and Millefeuille (5) can be considered for win bets at 3 to 1 or more. Personally I would bet the one at the higher odds of the pair near post time.

Exactas:

Curlin’s Catch (4), Millefeuille (5), Crazy Beautiful (6) and Adios Trippi (8) over Curlin’s Catch (4), Millefeuille (5), Crazy Beautiful (6), Adios Trippi (8), Vequist (3) and Hindsight (9).

(At the $1 minimum level this bet has a cost of $20 and if any horse other than Vequist finishes second it could pay three to 10 times the cost of the bet).