Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 5, 2022

Race 8 at Aqueduct | Saturday, February 5 | Post Time 4:25 PM Eastern

Withers Stakes | Purse $250,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

The Withers Stakes kicks off a three race series on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, with the Gotham Stakes and Wood Memorial significant races which help hone some top three year old prospects. 11 line up here and only one, Courvoisier (5), has stakes winning credentials, having captured the Jerome Stakes on New Year’s Day. However, that effort only earned a mediocre 75 Equibase Speed Figure and as he, as well as Jerome runner-up Smarten Up (3) and third place finisher Cooke Creek (11), will be bet based on the fact they ran in stakes but not how fast they ran, this becomes at VERY GOOD betting race by honing on horses which ran faster and which are likely to go to post at decent odds.

Gilded Age (4), Grantham (2) and Early Voting (9) are the three horses with the highest probability to win in my opinion, with Noneedtoworry (7) and Un Ojo (8) with a good shot to be part of the exacta or trifecta.

Gilded Age (4) was last seen breaking his maiden in his fourth career start, third route, in mid-November. The reason for the win, as opposed to sixth, eighth and fifth place finishes prior to that, was the addition of blinkers. Relaxed back in eighth of nine early, he rallied into a slow (48.6 half mile) pace to get to third while three wide on the turn and was in front by a length and one-half when the field straightened out for the stretch. Gilded Age pulled away to a two and three-quarter length win rather easily with an 87 Equibase figure which is the second best last race figure in the field. The best figure, 91, belongs to Constitutionlawyer (1), who earned that leading from start to finish on a muddy track last month. Gilded Age is trained by Bill Mott, who also saddles Galt in the similar Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park today. Mott has a very strong history of knowing when to move a horse from maiden winner to Road to the Derby stakes, as evidenced by Candy Man Rocket winning the 2021 Sam F. Davis Stakes, Country House finishing second in the 2019 Risen Star Stakes, Modernist winning the 2020 Risen Star Stakes and Tacitus winning the 2019 Tampa Bay Derby – ALL OFF MAIDEN WINS. As such, I think Gilded Age will fire a big shot to post the upset in this year’s Withers.

Grantham (2) can’t be taken lightly either, as he’s making only the third start of his career and coming off a win in his first two-turn race. In that race on December 18, Grantham went to his knees when stumbling at the start yet he was second by the time the field hit the first turn. Relaxing in third with a quarter mile to run, Grantham looked beaten while four wide on the far turn yet asserted himself to draw off to a one and one-half length win. Improving to an 84 figure from an 80 in his debut, Grantham should show more improvement today and with a good post and a stalking style, he could have first run on likely early leader Constitutionlawyer and be a tough target even for the possibly more talented Gilded Age to run down.

Early Voting (9) is certainly a contender but logically the worse win bet of the three contenders as he calls the Chad Brown barn home and went to post as the four to five favorite when breaking his maiden at first asking in December. That was a one-turn mile win, so he does lack the two-turn experience of the other two contenders above. Still, Jose Ortiz comes up from Florida and takes off an entire day at Gulfstream to ride Early Voting as he did in his debut. Another potential issue is the nine post position for a horse with tactical speed, because if Constitutionlawyer, Smarten Up (3) and Courvoisier all show speed that could make Early Voting go very wide in the early stages of the race. Nevertheless, as he’s likely to improve off a strong 86 figure in his debut and as Chad Brown wins back-to-back 25% of the time, we should use him at the least on exacta tickets we play.

Noneedtoworry (7) improved to an 85 figure when winning easily, for the second time in a row in his fifth career start. He circled the field and made a big move from seventh to lead then held easily throughout the stretch. There’s no way to know what was behind him in that field at Parx but he’s got a strong pedigree for this nine furlong trip, including on the dam’s side where the only other foal of the mare Need won two of three at this distance and earned nearly $300,000 in its career. Un Ojo was 23 to 1 when closing from seventh to miss winning by a neck in the New York Stallion Series Stakes last month over the track at seven furlongs. There’s little doubt Un Ojo will be last or nearly last in this field of 11 but with red hot Trevor McCarthy riding back and being by Laoban out of an A.P. Indy mare, I have little doubt the horse can get the distance and be part of the exacta or trifecta.

Win bets:

Gilded Age (4) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Grantham (2) at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

I would not hesitate to bet both colts to win in this situation.

Exactas:

Grantham (2), Gilded Age (4) and Early Voting (9) over Grantham (2), Gilded Age (4), Noneedtoworry (7), Un Ojo (8) and Early Voting (9).

Trifecta:

Grantham (2), Gilded Age (4) and Early Voting (9) over Grantham (2), Gilded Age (4), Noneedtoworry (7), Un Ojo (8) and Early Voting (9) over Grantham (2), Gilded Age (4), Noneedtoworry (7), Un Ojo (8) and Early Voting (9)