Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | February 6, 2021

Race 8 at Aqueduct | Saturday February 6 | Post Time 4:25 PM Eastern

Withers Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $250,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

I’m going out on a limb here with Mr. Doda (4), the longest shot in the field based on the 30/1 morning line. If I didn’t, and he ran well (first or second) I’d be kicking myself later and I think he has a legitimate shot to be competitive here, way more than is suggested by his starting odds. Mr. Doda started his career cheaply, in a $40K maiden claimer, two later finishing second in an even lower $20K maiden claiming race last October, one in which he led late and ended up beaten a half-length in second. He was claimed out of that race, running poorly when eighth off the claim in late October. Then, something changed as Mr. Doda was very game in finishing second. In his next start, which came last month, Mr. Doda ran even better when stalking the leader for the first half-mile then wearing another horse down to win by a neck. That effort earned a 98 Equibase Speed Figure which is BY FAR the best (fastest) in this field. It’s no wonder New Jersey based trainer Soto is taking a shot here because this is a weak field for the race with four of the eight others also just having a maiden win to their credit. It could be that effort at five and one-half furlongs is of no value when stretching out to a mile and one-eighth, but his pedigree (as a son of Uptowncharlybrown) suggests the distance is within his reach. One of the reasons Mr. Doda opens at 30/1 is the fact he raced in maiden claiming races early in his career, and the other is he’s been racing at Philadelphia Park (Parx Racing). The latter is of NO concern, as Capo Kane (3) broke his maiden at Parx in November before shipping over to win the Jerome Stakes last month, and because Max Player won the 2020 Withers Stake after breaking his maiden at Parx one race earlier.

Risk Taking (5) opens as the 5 to 2 favorite but isn’t a standout by any means although he is certainly a contender based on his win over the track in December at this nine furlong trip. Blinkers were added for that race, the third start of his career and they resulted in a strong 90 figure which is the second best last race figure in the field. As he’s trained by Chad Brown, Risk Taking is likely to be the favorite at post time as well and although likely a poor win bet at low odds he’s a must to use on exacta and trifecta tickets played.

Capo Kane (3) won around two turns at Parx in November before winning the Jerome last month at Aqueduct around one turn. The 91 and 89 figures are just fine and although he led from start to finish in those two races the fact he rallied from fourth to win his debut and does not wear blinkers suggest he can lead early or sit off the pace as need be in this race, making him a strong contender as well. Similar to Risk Taking, his 3/1 starting odds aren’t that appealing insofar as win bets are concerned.

Donegal Bay (7) improved markedly in December in the second start of his career and following four months off, winning a one turn mile with a similar 88 figure to the figure Capo Cane earned winning the Jerome. He too led from start to finish in that race but he does not wear blinkers so I believe he could sit off the pace if the need arises.

Win betting strategy:

Mr Doda (4) to win at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

Instead of a place bet we can play an exacta of ALL over Mr. Doda (4)

Exactas:

Risk Taking (5) over Capo Kane (3), Mr. Doda (4) and Donegal Bay (7)

Capo Kane (3), and Risk Taking (5) over Royal Number (2), Capo Kane (3), Mr. Doda (4), Risk Taking (5), Donegal Bay (7) and Eagle Orb (9).