Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 1, 2022

Race 9 at Oaklawn | Saturday January 1 | Post Time 5:13 PM Eastern

Smarty Jones Stakes | Purse $250,000 | One Mile | Three Years Old

The Road to the Derby series at Oaklawn kicks off with the Smarty Jones Stakes, followed by the Rebel Stakes on February 26 and the Arkansas Derby on April 2. This year’s Smarty Jones drew a full field of 14 newly turned three year olds, all lightly raced and almost all unproven, meaning it is likely there will be no heavy favorite and a lot of profit to be made if we are right.

Kavod (4) has more experience than any horse in the field, having run nine times. Highly regarded early in his career, Kavod finished second in the Tremont Stakes last June but then went off form as he was both overmatched (as in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes) and tried on a surface (turf) he did not care for. His connections soured on him and entered him in a 50K claiming race in November, one which he won because of the nature of his opponents and one from which he was immediately snatched up by excellent trainer Chris Hartman (22% wins in 2021 on 313 starters). Hartman kept Kavod happy and he won the Advent Stakes on December 3 at Oaklawn. That race carried a $150,000 purse and proved Kavod fit at this level. That effort also earned a strong 91 Equibase Speed Figure, just shy of the field high 95 Barber Road (10) earned winning a stakes at Churchill Downs in November and tired for the figure Cool Papa G (12) earned when second in that same race. The difference in this field is Kavod draws a much better post for this two-turn trip, as well as may be able to improve in his second start for Hartman, with jockey Arrieta riding back after getting familiar with him in the Advent Stakes last month. Experience over the Oaklawn surface, which many of these lack, will help Kavod as well and I have no concerns about his ability to run this distance as his dam has produced multiple dirt route winners. 

All in Sync (2), one of three Smarty Jones entrants from the formidable Steve Asmussen barn, is a horse with a very nice future. He finished second in his debut sprinting in October then won more easily than his one and one-half length margin on paper makes it appear last time out on November 25. Now stretching out to two turns on an age-old pattern of two sprints into a route, All in Sync gets a great inside post and projects to be in front in the early stages. Under the barn’s #1 jockey in Ricardo Santana, and with a big prospect for improvement off a 90 Equibase Figure last time out which is already one of the best in the field, All in Sync has potential to successfully play “come catch me” with the field.

Home Brew (3) will likely be the betting favorite as he not only opens at 3 to 1 odds but is trained by Brad Cox, already off to an amazing start at the meeting with a record of 9-7-1 from 23 starters. Home Brew also has a win at Oaklawn, earned one month ago at this mile trip in an allowance race. That was his third career start and second off a layoff and in that race he led from start to finish, but on slow fractions. With a number of horses stretching out to two turns for the first time in the Smarty Jones I expect Home Brew will be relaxed in mid-pack in the early stages like he was in his start on November 14 when he rallied from fifth of eight to be second at the end. That effort earned a 92 figure and considering he was geared down in his win last month the 82 figure he earned is not as representative of what he’s capable of as his previous effort. As to breeding, Home Brew is another well suited to this distance and farther as he moves through the Road to the Derby series at Oaklawn, because as a son of Street Sense he’s a half-brother to both Maxfield and McKinzie. As such, Home Brew must be taken very seriously when considering our wagers involving this race.

Win bets:

Since it is likely Home Brew (3) will be the betting favorite, the value for win bets lies in the other two contenders, so win bets on both Kavod (4) and All in Sync (3) are justified at odds of 5 to 2 or more. We will use Home Brew (3) in the win position on exacta and trifecta tickets to cover the possibility of him winning.

For the exacta and trifecta we should use the other two Asmussen trainees Cairama (11) and Cool Papa G (12), as well as Dash Attack (1), Don’tcrossthedevil (9), Barber Road (10) and Ben Deisel (14).

Exactas:

Box All In Sync (2), Home Brew (3) and Kavod (4).

All In Sync (2), Home Brew (3) and Kavod (4) over Dash Attack (1), All In Sync (2), Home Brew (3), Kavod (4), Don’tcrossthedevil (9), Barber Road (10), Cairama (11), Cool Papa G (12) and Ben Deisel (14).

$0.50 Trifectas:

All In Sync (2), Home Brew (3) and Kavod (4) over All In Sync (2), Home Brew (3) and Kavod (4) over Dash Attack (1), All In Sync (2), Home Brew (3), Kavod (4), Don’tcrossthedevil (9), Barber Road (10), Cairama (11), Cool Papa G (12) and Ben Deisel (14).

(Note: Between the two exacta tickets above and the trifecta we have good coverage of the three main contenders winning, winning with any of a number of other contenders finishing second no matter who finishes third, and then for the trifecta with two of the three main contenders finishing first and third with any of a number of horses finishing second. In this big field I feel the risk is well worth the reward for these types of bets).