Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 16, 2021

Race 10 at Fair Grounds | Saturday January 16| Post Time 5:23 PM Eastern

Louisiana Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $125,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Four Years Olds and Upward

Silver Prospector (3) was a graded stakes winning two year old in 2019, was a graded stakes winning three year old last year, and should be a graded stakes four year old after this race. Debuting on turf in his first three starts, Silver Prospector was so highly regarded he ran in a $450K stakes as a maiden in the third of those three (finishing sixth of 11). Moving to dirt next out, he won easily and two later he proved his high regard was correct when winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. In his second start as a three year old, Silver Prospector won the Southwest Stakes but ran poorly in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby thereafter. Rested from last May until last October, Silver Prospector returned a winner at nine furlongs on dirt without a prep, running the BEST race of his career with a 105 Equibase Speed Figure. Perhaps stepping up way too high, he ran in the Grade 1 Clark Stakes and finished sixth (of 14). Not only is he dropping from grade 1 to 3, he’s also getting Santana back, who rode him to ALL four wins in his career. I think Silver Prospector is going to run even better than he did two back and as a newly turned four year old still has improving to do.

Blackberry Wine (4) is ALSO a newly turned four year old, with a similar start to his career as Silver Prospector. He was entered for turf in his first three starts (running on dirt in one of those), then when running in a dirt route for the first time he won easily by almost six lengths. He was later disqualified for a medication violation, then again was disqualified two later when winning an allowance race before the maiden DQ was official. Still eligible for the maiden ranks (although he had two original wins), Blackberry Wine won by 13 lengths last March with a career-best 106 figure before missing by a neck in an allowance race. Then, similar to Silver Prospector, Blackberry Wine returned off a six month layoff and ran poorly, but in a sprint he likely needed after a long layoff. When stretched out to this distance at Fair Grounds last month, Blackberry Wine won impressively by five lengths with a 104 figure. As such, he’s another four year old with improving to do third off the layoff as well and looks to be a strong contender to win.

Grand Luwegee (1) and Sonneman (9) are two horses which must be used on any exacta and trifecta tickets played although I feel they have less probability to win than Silver Prospector or Blackberry Wine. Grand Luwegee returned from four months off last month to win at nine furlongs over the track with a 95 figure, and he’s run as fast as earning a 104 figure winning at the distance in his career. Hernandez rides back after being up for the win last month and the colt has excellent tactical speed which, along with the rail draw, could help him to be part of the exacta for the 12^th time in his 22^nd career start. Sonneman is trained by Asmussen, the same as Silver Prospector. He’s been first or second in eight of 10 races, including being first or second in all six career routes. Santana, who rode him in his last three races, moves to Silver Prospector, but Graham is having a big meeting to date (19% wins on 171 races as of last weekend) and is a fine replacement. However, he’s not on an improving pattern as is Silver Prospector or Blackberry Wine, with his last three figures being 100, 102 and 100. Still, I expect him to be very competitive. I’ll add Wells Bayou (8) as well. I’m concerned about coming back from an eight month layoff going two turns but he did run as well last year as Sonneman ran recently and is in the red hot Cox barn.

Win betting strategy:

Silver Prospector (3) to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more.

Blackberry Wine (4) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Silver Prospector (3) over ALL

Silver Prospector (3) over Grand Luwegee (1), Blackberry Wine (4), Wells Bayou (8) and Sonneman (9).

Silver Prospector (3) and Blackberry Wine (4) over ALL

Silver Prospector (3) and Blackberry Wine (4) over Grand Luwegee (1), Silver Prospector (3), Blackberry Wine (4), Wells Bayou (8) and Sonneman (9)