Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 2, 2021

Race 7 at Santa Anita | Saturday January 2 | Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern (3:30 Pacific)

San Gabriel Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Eighth on Turf | Four Years Old and Upward

The only way to make a serious profit in this race is with a horse at a price. Cleopatra’s Strike (1) is just such a horse, opening at 15/1. This eight year old has won nearly a half-million dollars but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He has finished second eight times in 23 career races on turf while winning three times but that doesn’t tell the whole story. That story is he really likes nine furlongs on turf and he really likes Santa Anita and the fact he was claimed out of his last start is one of the main reasons he opens at double digit odds. That last start, on November 20, was the first time (in 31 career races) in two years where he was entered in a claiming race (this time for $62,500). The reason is when he came to Southern California in the fall of 2018 (from Woodbine), Cleopatra’s Strike proved to be stakes quality. In his first start on the circuit he nearly won that year’s edition of the San Gabriel (missing by a nose), then two years ago (September, 2019), Cleopatra’s Strike won the similar Grade 2 John Henry Turf Cup, right before almost winning the Hollywood Turf Cup and missing by a neck on the wire in the 2019 San Gabriel. Then, again at Santa Anita this past February, he finished second, to the mighty United (who had just run second in the Breeders’ Cup Turf). Two poor races followed in June (off a four month layoff) and July, then came another three months off and the claiming race.

Claimed by Bob Hess, Jr. in that race seven weeks ago, Cleopatra’s Strike hasn’t missed a beat in the morning, with four workouts and even though seventh in that allowance/optional claiming race, it must be noted the pace was abysmally slow (49, 113.4, 142) and he had not shot to close. Granted, there’s not a lot of pace in this race but it’s also a short field with a couple of horses who just have very little probability to win in Multiplier and Bowies Hero, so second off the layoff, and with a lot of incentive for the new connections, this eight year old with four of five first or second place finishes at Santa Anita and four of five second place finishes at nine furlongs, can run pretty well to make us a profit.

Count Again (5) is the “now” horse, having won the Seabiscuit Stakes at the end of November after changing trainers (to Phil D’Amato) and coming to Southern California from Woodbine (just like Cleopatra’s Strike did in 2018). He fits on all counts and should be a factor to be sure.

Bob and Jackie (3), Next Shares (2) and Anothertwistafate (6) are all okay, the latter having finished a non-threatening fourth behind Count Again in the Seabiscuit but adding blinkers. Bob and Jackie has just a trio of non-graded stakes wins to his credit and has never run this far but is bred to get the trip. Next Share won the 2019 Seabiscuit but is winless in seven races and this nine furlong trip is not his best distance.

Win betting strategy:

Cleopatra’s Strike (1) to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Cleopatra’s Strike (1) and Count Again (5).

For smaller amounts:

Box Cleopatra’s Strike (1) and Next Shares (2).

Box Cleopatra’s Strike (1) and Bob and Jackie (3).

Box Cleopatra’s Strike (1) and Anothertwistafate (6).