Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 22, 2022

Race 12 at Fair Grounds | Saturday January 22 | Post Time 6:20 PM Eastern

Colonel E.R. Bradley Stakes | Purse $100,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Four Years Old and Upward

Cavalry Charge (3) won the last two races in a row of his 2021 campaign which ended in October, both on turf. He also won the first race of his 2021 campaign last June, at this distance on turf, and following a lengthy nine month layoff. Returning from just three and one-half months off this time, Cavalry Charge put in a very strong series of workouts since resuming training last month, culminating with a second best of 46 five furlong drills last week. Jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. was aboard for all three wins last year and the best of the three earned the horse a very strong 113 Equibase Speed Figure. That figure is absolutely stakes quality as we can tell by noting Two Emmys earned a 113 figure winning the Mr. D. Stakes last August and Monarchs Glen earned a 109 figure when third and beaten less than a length in a stakes similar to this one last month at Fair Grounds. With all those factors squarely in favor of Cavalry Charge running as well as he did last fall, he gets top billing in this field.

Monarchs Glen must also be considered as a contender, not only because of his effort last month in the Diliberto Memorial Stakes over the course but also because he gets a fast and contested early pace scenario to compliment his late running style. With horses like Dyn O Mite (11), Forty Under (12) and potentially also Bodecream (9) all having shown a need to lead early in some of their prior races and all having poorer outside posts requiring them to show early speed and get position so as not to lose ground on the first turn, Monarchs Glen can drop back to last just as he did four weeks ago when rallying five wide on the turn to miss second by a neck and miss winning by another half-length. Joe Bravo comes in from California to ride for trainer Maker and they’ve had some success together so barring any traffic trouble, Monarchs Glen could be rolling by the field in the stretch.

Two Emmys (6) is another potential “early” pace type, and possibly an early pace casualty “If” jockey James Graham can’t get the six year old to relax from the start as others from the outside stream by. He has had the lead from the start in his last three races BUT all of those races were very slow early and with the pace likely to be much faster than 49 to 50 seconds to the first half-mile, Two Emmys may naturally find himself in third or fourth. He rallied from seventh to miss by a nose with a furious rally on the Fair Grounds turf two years ago and form third early to win last January and he does NOT wear blinkers, which suggests his early placings lately were strategy rather than necessity. Now with five first or second place finishes in six turf races at Fair Grounds and having fired nicely to miss by a half-length off a similar layoff at the end of 2020, this hard-knocking gelding has every right to be first or second as he’s been now in 10 of 13 career turf races.

Win bets: Consider BOTH Cavalry Charge (3) and Monarchs Glen (8) for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Cavalry Charge (3), Two Emmys (6) and Monarchs Glen (8).

Cavalry Charge (3), Two Emmys (6) and Monarchs Glen (8) over Cavalry Charge (3), Two Emmys (6), Monarchs Glen (8), Halo Again (2), Bodecream (9), Lucky Curlin (10), Dyn O Mite (11) and Forty Under (12). Note: With six of these horses opening at odds of 8 to 1 or more, this exacta part-wheel play has a cost of $21 at the $1 level and has potential to pay 4x to 5x the cost so appears worth the risk.