Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 23, 2021

Race 7 at Gulfstream Park | Saturday January 23| Post Time 2:38 PM Eastern

Marshua’s River Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $125,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Olds and Upward

Evil Lyn (6) was a strong claim (among many) for Mike Maker last year, as she nearly won the $150,000 Indiana Grand Stakes in August in her second start after Maker grabbed her for $40K in May. Two later when stretched back out to two turns, she won the $100K Hilltop Stakes and a very tough classified allowance race. Off that win, Evil Lyn proved very game once more when leading from the start in the Pago Hop Stakes at Fair Grounds, then battling nose-and-nose to the wire before coming up inches short in the photo. She’s been in steady training at Palm Meadows since then, gets Southern California top jockey Flavien Prat and could be the one to beat repeating any of her last three efforts in this situation.

Zofelle (3) comes back from a layoff since last June when she was a well-beaten fifth in a grade 1 race. I nearly always ignore a race which leads to a long layoff so the one before that is the one which may be representative of what she can do here, and similar to Evil Lyn’s Pago Hop effort, Zofelle came up inches short of winning the nearly identical Grade 3 Mint Julep Stakes. That was off a two month layoff, and the mare won in her U.S. debut in October of 2019 following four months off so I have no concern about the time off coming into this race. This is particularly true as her turf works at Palm Meadows have been very strong, including a five furlong drill in 57 seconds flat on 1/12 which shows she’s ready to return to the race in top order. It must also be noted Zofelle won the 2019 Pago Hop Stakes, the same race Evil Lin nearly won last month.

Belle Laura (1) for the most part wins or doesn’t show up. She has four wins in 13 races, all on turf, and two third place finishes. The most important thing to note is THREE of those wins have come since moving to the Avila barn, two with Berrios aboard as today. One of those came following nine months off last June so I’m not concerned by the fact she’s been away from the races since September. Her effort last July over this course at this mile trip winning the In the Breeze Stakes was good enough to win here if repeated and she also ran very well when third in the Grade 3 Herecomesthebride Stakes in 2019 behind multiple graded stakes winner Cambier Parc.

Win betting strategy:

Evil Lyn (6) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

If the odds are decent on the other two contenders I would also consider win bets, for smaller amounts (about half) of the amount bet to win on Evil Lyn because I feel as a group these three stick out above the other seven – Zofelle (3) at odds of 3 to 1 or higher, Belle Laura at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Evil Lyn (6), Zofelle (3) and Belle Laura (1).

Evil Lyn (6), Zofelle (3) and Belle Laura (1) over Evil Lyn (6), Zofelle (3), Belle Laura (1), Vigilantes Way (4), Tuned (8), Niko’s Dream (9) and Sweet Bye and Bye (10)