Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 30, 2021

Race 7 at Santa Anita | Saturday January 30 | Post Time 6:30 PM Eastern (3:30 Pacific)

Robert B. Lewis Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $105,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

The key to making a profit in this race lies with Parnelli (3). One of two from the strong barn of John Shirreffs, Parnelli has the distinction of finishing behind three of the other seven entrants in this race at one time or another. He finished second, beaten a neck, to Hot Rod Charlie (4) at a mile at Santa Anita in October then he finished second, again by a neck to Spielberg (8) at a mile in November. Two later he finished third in the Sham Stakes, in which Medina Spirit (1) was second. In between the Sham and his defeat by Spielberg, Parnelli won at a mile by nearly 10 lengths under a hand ride. In the losses to Hot Rod Charlie and to Spielberg, Parnelli had set the pace from the start and still missed by inches after battling nose-and-nose the entire length of the stretch, so he proved competitive with both colts, with Hot Rod Charlie finishing second at 94 to 1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after that and with Spielberg winning the Los Alamitos Futurity two races later. The point is, not only did Parnelli miss by inches to horse opening at much lower odds than the 12/1 he starts at, he showed a lot of maturity in his win at the end of November as he sat relaxed in third in the early stages before blasting off to win by almost 10 lengths. With a jockey change to Rispoli (who is battling for the title with Hernandez) and a post to allow him to sit off the likely leader Medina Spirit, Parnelli has a big shot to post the upset in this year’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

Medina Spirit (1) won as he pleased sprinting in December then ran on nicely when making up three lengths on stablemate Life is Good in the Sham Stakes last month. I expect Cedillo to send him to the lead from the rail and try to play “come catch me” from the start as the colt appears to have the top early speed in the field. Considering that runner-up effort in the Sham earned a field high 110 Equibase Figure (with Parnelli and Spielberg next at 105), and considering this is only his third career start and second route, Medina Spirit would be no surprise if winning and if he does we can still make a nice profit in the exacta with Parnelli finishing second.

Wipe the Slate (7), like Medina Spirit, has two races under his belt, a win and a runner-up effort. The runner-up came to Life is Good in November, with the winner going on to win the Sham Stakes and defeat Medina Sprit, and the win came in his most recent race with a 96 figure (up from 87) that can easily be improved upon. He’s a son of hot sire Nyquist so I see no issue with the added distance or two-turns, and opening at 4/1 he may be worth a look as a win bet as well.

There are no significant knocks on Hot Rod Charlie (4) and Spielberg (8), but neither are standouts and open at lower odds (3/1 and 7/2, respectively) than I deem worth betting to win. Considering I will be keying on Parnelli at high odds in exactas, that could work out well even if one of these two prevails.

Win betting strategy:

Parnelli (3) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Wipe the Slate (7) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Parnelli (3) over Medina Spirit (1), Hot Rod Charlie (4), Wipe the Slate (7) and Spielberg (8).

Medina Spirit (1), Hot Rod Charlie (4), Wipe the Slate (7) and Spielberg (8) over Parnelli (3).

Trifectas:

Parnelli (3) over Medina Spirit (1), Hot Rod Charlie (4), Wipe the Slate (7) and Spielberg (8) over Medina Spirit (1), Hot Rod Charlie (4), Wipe the Slate (7) and Spielberg (8).

Medina Spirit (1), Hot Rod Charlie (4), Wipe the Slate (7) and Spielberg (8) over Parnelli (3) over Medina Spirit (1), Hot Rod Charlie (4), Wipe the Slate (7) and Spielberg (8).