Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 8, 2022

Race 8 at Oaklawn | Saturday January 8 | Post Time 4:46 PM Eastern

Pippin Stakes | Purse $150,000 | One Mile | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

Often we can determine whether a race offers profit potential by first looking at the likely betting favorite. If that favorite is “legitimate,” which means that horse looks very capable of winning and has a high probability to win, we might decide to look for other opportunities. However, if the favorite is “vulnerable” or “false,” which means something about the race does not favor the horse, or there are at least two other horses more probable (likely) to win, the race should be examined more closely.

Such is the case with this year’s Pippin Stakes, because morning line favorite Coach (1), who opens at 9 to 5 odds, appears to be the third or fourth fastest horse in the field. In addition, the low morning line odds also result from the fact she’s trained by red hot Brad Cox (10-10-3 from 35 races since the start of the meeting). Certainly, a high percentage trainer must be respected, but there may be too much weight given to this particular horse because of who the trainer is. Coach won over the track on 12/17 in her first start after five and one-half months off, by two lengths in a field of seven. However, that was an allowance level race and the 90 Equibase Figure does NOT compare favorably with at least three other horses in the race. Although Coach had a lot of class last year, finishing second in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn, she was fifth in the Honeybee, third in the Fantasy and ninth in the Kentucky Oaks before the layoff. She’s being bet because she ran in those races and not because she ran well, and we should take advantage of that.

Breeze Rider (2) not only has the “now” credentials, she loves to win. She’s won 11 of 24, and she’s won on all three surfaces in racing (turf, dirt and all-weather). She enters the race off a nearly five length win in the My Charmer Stakes at Turfway and won a stakes at Fair Grounds on turf before that. She’s won three races on conventional dirt like that at Oaklawn and she has had the lead at the top of the stretch in her last FIVE races in a row, winning four. Jockey E.T. Baird was aboard for three of those, the ONLY three times he’s been aboard, and the 100 Equibase Figure from the My Charmer is tied for the BEST last race figure in the field with the third place effort Miss Bigly (6) put forth in the Chilukki Stakes in November. As such, Breeze Rider could take some beating in this race, opening at 5 to 1.

W W Fitzy (3) is the other horse I will consider for a win bet, opening at 8 to 1. She’s won nine times in 25 races and finishing second in four others. Most importantly, after a runner-up effort in the Powerless Stakes in November, she was put in an allowance/optional claiming race for her most recent start on December 17, the first time she’d been eligible to be claimed in 10 months. High percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro snapped her up for $62,500 and immediately enters her in this $150,000 purse stakes race where the winner’s share is $90,000. Diodoro has done this 11 times in the past few years when claiming a horse and putting it in a dirt route stakes, and he’s been successful three times, evidence he knows what he’d doing. If that weren’t incentive enough, the mare earned a 102 figure at Oaklawn in April winning by almost seven lengths and she did so leading from start to finish. I suspect jockey David Cohen is going to put W W Fitzy on the lead from the start as she adds blinkers, and with it likely at that point Breeze Rider is going to take up a stalking position, those two should parade around the track either in that position or with Breeze Rider asserting herself on the turn to take the lead, with W W Fitzy holding second.

In addition to Coach being a bit suspect, the other pair of favorites, Miss Bigly (6) and Josie (5), who open at 5 to 2, appear capable of minor awards only and are not win contenders. Miss Bigly has finished third in two straight with no excuse and her figures of 90 to 98 offer her no edge in this race, while Josie had no excuse when leading into the stretch at 9 to 5 odds I a stakes at Laurel when last seen then fading to fifth with a low 86 figure.

Win bets:

Breeze Rider (2) and W W Fitzy (3) at 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

Box Breeze Rider (2) and W W Fitzy (3)

Breeze Rider (2) and W W Fitzy (3) over Breeze Rider (2), W W Fitzy (3), Coach (1), Josie (5) and Miss Bigly (6).

$0.50 Trifectas:

Breeze Rider (2) and W W Fitzy (3) over Breeze Rider and (2), W W Fitzy (3) over Breeze Rider (2), W W Fitzy (3), Coach (1), Josie (5) and Miss Bigly (6)