Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | January 9, 2021

Race 9 at Santa Anita | Saturday January 9 | Post Time 7:05 PM Eastern (4:05 Pacific)

Las Cienegas Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $100,000 | Six Furlongs on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

Lighthouse (4) finished third in her debut in the fall of 2019 in a turf sprint and hasn’t been worse than second in five turf sprints since then, including three stakes. She rallied strongly from fourth to miss by a neck in the shorter Daisycutter Stakes in July at Del Mar to earn a career-best 111 Equibase figure then won the $360K Music City Stakes over 10 others at six and one-half furlongs in September with a 109 figure effort which could have been even faster if she had not been geared down after making the lead by three lengths with an eighth of a mile to run. Rested since then, Lighthouse has been working steadily for her return to the races and Rispoli, who is on fire at the meeting and who rode her to the Music City Stakes win, takes the call. Considering Lighthouse can win on the lead or from as far back as last, she’s the one to beat here yet she opens as the third betting choice on the morning line.

There are no knocks on favorites Jolie Olympica (7) and Oleksandra (6) but they are poor win bets anywhere near their starting odds of 8/5 and 9/5, respectively, given Lighthouse and Superstition (5) have the same probability to win in my opinion. Jolie Olympica won this race last year when it was run at five and one-half furlongs but she’s finished second twice at a mile since coming to the U.S. and can handle the six furlong trip. Like Lighthouse, Jolie Olympica has been off since the summer but her win in this race last year (with a 111 figure) came off a seven month layoff so there are no concerns there. Oleksandra beat males in the Jaipur Stakes at this distance last June then took four months off and ran poorly when ninth of 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint in November. She missed by a half-length to Jolie Olympica last May in the Monrovia Stakes at five and one-half furlongs with a career-best 113 figure and has won seven of 16 on turf so is no slouch and a recent fast half-mile drill signals she’s ready to run well.

Superstition (5) can’t be ignored, opening at 6/1. Her record looks very much like that of Lighthouse in terms of finishing first or second in all four career turf sprints. None has been a stakes though and that’s why she’s 6 to 1 to start. She improved to a 104 best figure last time out and with Prat riding her back there’s every reason to believe this lightly raced four year old can take a big step forward here.

Win betting strategy:

Lighthouse (4) to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.

For a smaller amount, Superstition (5) to win at 3 to 1 or more.

Exactas:

Box Lighthouse (4) and Superstition (5)

Lighthouse (4) over Superstition (5), Oleksandra (6) and Jolie Olympica (7)

Superstition (5), Oleksandra (6) and Jolie Olympica (7) over Lighthouse (4)

Superstition (5) over Lighthouse (4) over Oleksandra (6) and Jolie Olympica (7)

Lighthouse (4) over Oleksandra (6) and Jolie Olympica (7) over Superstition (5)