Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 11, 2020

Race 9 at Keeneland | Saturday, July 11 | Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern Time

Blue Grass Stakes – Grade 2| Purse $600,000 | One Mile and One Eighth | Three Year Olds

It didn’t take more than a couple of minutes to conclude there are two strong contenders to win this year’s Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, and one very interesting longshot. The two top contenders are Swiss Skydiver (7) and Art Collector (3). The longshot is Tiesto (13). Additionally, there a number of other horses which have all been second or third at the level at one time or another and could vie for a spot on exacta and trifecta tickets.

Art Collector (3) started his career on turf, winning one of three races, then moved to dirt and won his second start on the surface last November. Taking time off to mature until May, Art Collector provides a perfect example of what is happening in the three year old ranks due to a Covid-19 delayed Derby as he has really improved in the late spring, which would be too late for the Derby in normal times. Coming back to the races following nearly six months off in mid-May, Art Collector won a dirt sprint in “ridden out” fashion after rallying from seventh of 11 early, then when stretched out to two-turns on dirt for the first time, won even more easily, earning a career-best 106 Equibase speed figure in the process when leading from start to finish. To put that effort and figure into perspective, likely favorite Swiss Skydiver earned 104 and 108 figures, respectively, winning two important stakes in the Kentucky Oaks division in May and June about the same time Art Collector earned 97 and 106 figures, respectively. Trainer Tom Drury may not be a household name but he’s been very good at his craft for some time and knows how to keep a horse fit. According to a STATS Race Lens query, over the last five years Drury has won 20 of 66 races with horses in dirt routes back-to-back which makes me think Art Collector is very capable of running another “A” race. Considering Art Collector has shown he can win leading from the start or when coming from off the pace and that he is making his third start off a layoff and can improve, he has a big shot to win the Blue Grass Stakes.

Swiss Skydiver (7), a filly facing males, is the biggest impediment to Art Collector winning in my opinion. She leads the “Road to the Oaks” leaderboard on points with 310, more than “Road to the Derby” points leader Tiz the Law has earned to date. Still, she needs points in this male division in order to potentially run in the Derby and that’s why she’s entered here. Starting with a win in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in March with a 99 figure when leading from start to finish, Swiss Skydiver improved to a 104 figure winning the Fantasy Stakes in May then easily winning the Santa Anita Oaks last month with a new career-best 108 figure. In the Fantasy, Swiss Skydiver sat in second about three lengths from the leader in the early stages so although she won the other two stakes leading from the start she has proven she does not need the lead to win. She also gets a five pound break in the weight the jockey and saddle will make up because she faces males which could make the difference of a length or two at this mile and one-eighth trip. Jockey Mike Smith, who was aboard in the Santa Anita Oaks, comes out from California to ride and if she repeats her last effort, or improves upon it, Swiss Skydiver could get on the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard and have her choice of the Kentucky Oaks or Kentucky Derby come the first Saturday in September.

Among a number of horses which may be just a cut below the top two but still may have a chance to be second, third or fourth, I think Tiesto (13) deserves special mention. He won his debut last summer in a two-turn race on turf which is no easy task. After a sixth place finish in a stakes on grass, Tiesto as given four months off and returned in the Palm Beach Stakes, which was statement of confidence on the part of his Hall-of-Fame trainer Bill Mott. Rewarding that confidence with a runner-up effort, Tiesto then found himself far back in 10^th in the early stages of a race on May 30 before rallying for third. Mott now tries dirt for the first time, and that’s very intriguing given how well the trainer knows when horses can transition from turf to dirt and the horse’s pedigree. His sire (Tiznow) produced the 2017 Blue Grass Winner Irap and his dam produced 2018 Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Promises Fulfilled. Looking at records of previous horses Mott has done this with is really easy using STATS Race Lens and it reveals a record of six-for-23 in the last five years when going from turf to dirt in stakes, including Good Samaritan’s win in the Jim Dandy Stakes, an important race for three year olds in 2017, and Yoshida winning the 2018 Woodward Stakes. Mott also has come in under the radar with three year olds making their second starts off layoffs in Derby preps the last few years, winning twice, with Modernist in this year’s Risen Star Stakes, and with Tacitus in the 2019 Wood Memorial. Additionally, Mott saddled Hofburg to a second place finish in the 2018 Florida Derby and Country House to a runner-up finish in the 2019 Risen Star. All-in-all, Mott’s prowess in knowing the quality of his horses has me absolutely wanting to make a bet on Tiesto at high odds in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Betting Strategies:

Win, Place Bets:

Art Collector (3) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Although it is unlikely Swiss Skydiver (7) will go to post at 5 to 2 odds or higher, if she does, she can be bet to win as well.

Additionally, Tiesto (13) can be bet to win at odds of 5 to 1 or more. You can make a place bet at odds of 8 to 1 or higher, or play the “exacta as a place bet” strategy below which has worked favorably in the past.

Exactas:

Art Collector (3) and Swiss Skydiver (7) over ALL

Trifectas:

Art Collector (3) and Swiss Skydiver (7) over Art Collector (3), Swiss Skydiver (7) and Tiesto (13) over ALL