Keeneland Select Pick of the Day - July 16

Race 10 at Saratoga | Saturday July 16 | Post Time 6:13 PM Eastern

Sanford Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $175,000 | Six Furlongs | Two Year Olds

Analysis and top contenders:

In spite of being presented with a very talented group of two year olds and a field in which 11 of the 12 entered have won their most recent starts, two horses appear to be STAND OUTS against the rest – Andiamo a Firenze (9) and Forte (4). If you recognize part of the name of the first of the pair (Andiamo a Firenze) you’re correctly remembering a serious race horse in Firenze Fire, who earned $2.7 million, and who won the 2017 Sanford Stakes off a maiden win just like this colt, from the same dam, is attempting to do. Firenze Fire was bred and owned by Mr. Amore Stables and trained by Kelly Breen, who are the connections of Andiamo a Firenze as well. Andiamo a Firenze won with a lot of gas left in the tank in his debut last month and earned an 88 Equibase Speed Figure, not only the second best in the race but also very likely to be improved upon in his second career start.

Forte won just as easily in his one and only start as Andiamo a Firenze did in his only start, coasting to a seven and three-quarter length win with a field high 91 Equibase figure. Pletcher won this race last year with Wit off a maiden win and unlike many of the last out winners in this field, Forte earned his win showing a lot of maturity when racing in third for the first quarter mile then second for the next quarter mile before taking over. He opens at 5 to 2 odds compared to 7 to 2 for Andiamo a Firenze and that’s the only reason he’s listed second here as he doesn’t offer the same return. Just the same, between Forte and Andiamo a Firenze combined I think they have about a one in three chance to win this race.

For second on some exacta tickets and for third on trifecta tickets we can consider five horses – Boppy O (1), Great Navigator (3), Mo Strike (6), I’m Wide Awake (8) and Valenzan Day (12), with three of the group opening at double digit odds which could lead to a nice profit.

Win bets:

Andiamo a Firenze (9) or Forte (4) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more. In this case I would be the horse among these two which is the highest odds near post time.

Exactas:

Box Forte (4) and Andiamo a Firenze (9).

Forte (4) and Andiamo a Firenze (9) over Boppy O (1), Great Navigator (3), Forte (4), Mo Strike (6), I’m Wide Awake (8), Andiamo a Firenze (9) and Valenzan Day (12)

Trifectas:

Forte (4) and Andiamo a Firenze (9) over Boppy O (1), Great Navigator (3), Forte (4), Mo Strike (6), I’m Wide Awake (8), Andiamo a Firenze (9) and Valenzan Day (12) over Forte (4) and Andiamo a Firenze (9).

Forte (4) and Andiamo a Firenze (9) over Forte (4) and Andiamo a Firenze (9) over Boppy O (1), Great Navigator (3), Forte (4), Mo Strike (6), I’m Wide Awake (8), Andiamo a Firenze (9) and Valenzan Day (12).