Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 18, 2020

Race 11 at Monmouth | Saturday, July 18 | Post Time 5:10 PM Eastern Time

United Nations Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and Three Eighths on Turf | Three Year Olds and Upward

As usual, Arklow (1) is one of the betting choices on the morning line, as he is likely to be near post time, AND, as usual, he doesn’t have the chance to win the public thinks he does. With seven runner-up finishes to go along with six wins, he’s proven time and again when he gets into a battle he just doesn’t have the winning spirit to put away his foe. He should it last year when second by a neck in the Man O’War then one month later in the Belmont Gold Cup and he showed it again last month in the Louisville Stakes. Then, one month later on July 12, Arklow was sent to post at 3 to 1 odds in the Elkorn Stakes at Keeneland, and he finished sixth while never threatening. Certainly Brad Cox is a top trainer in North America, so he knows what he’s doing wheeling the horse back on five days rest, but I am not interested in Arklow as a win contender one bit. He will be used on exacta and trifecta tickets however because on the occasions when he shows up he is in the top three at the finish, and that’s been 50% of the time in his career.

The reason I spent a lot of time talking about a horse I don’t think can win is because Arklow opens at 5 to 2 there’s a lot of value on two, maybe three other horses. First among that trio is Paret (9), who earned his first North American stakes win last month in the Tiller Stakes at Belmont. That was a career-best effort, with a 109 Equibase Figure which fits at this level, and it came off nearly eight months away, so he can run even better. Behind Paret in that race was graded stakes winner Sadler’s Joy, among others, and Paret earned the win leading from start to finish, coming home strongly to prevail. He could get another “Lone Frontrunner” trip here, with Vargas riding back, and so even though he’s not going to pay $78 like he did last month, at anywhere near his 6 to 1 starting odds, Paret is a definite win bet for me.

Muggsmatic (3) is another horse I’m happy to bet to win at anywhere near his 8 to 1 starting odds. One of two from the potent Mike Maker barn, Muggsmatic gets leading jockey Paco Lopez. As usual, Maker found a stakes horse in the claiming ranks, taking the horse for $25K last August. Since then, he’s been first or second in four races, all stakes. Although Muggsmatic has never raced farther than nine furlongs, Maker is especially good at getting horses to go 11 and 12 furlongs successfully, for example Marzo last fall at Keeneland to the tune of a $26 win payoff. Particularly as this horse is very competitive, with nine wins and four seconds in 24 career turf starts, I have little doubt Muggsmatic will be a contender to the wire.

Aquaphobia (5) is also trained by Maker and he’s another off-the-claim story. Aquaphobia won first off the claim in a stakes at Gulfstream Park in February, then finished fourth, second and fourth again, also in stakes. The first win came at the expense of Muggsmatic, who was also running for Maker that day, and even though Aquaphobia has yet to run this far, he has won at 10 furlongs on grass and is bred to run all day.

Betting Strategies:

Win:

The first win bet to consider is Paret (9) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Then, I would absolutely consider a win bet on Muggsmatic (3) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

In this situation, betting two horses to win is a very good idea, because Arklow is vulnerable.

Exactas:

Box: Paret (9), Muggsmatic (3) and Aquaphobia (5) over Arklow (1), Paret (9), Muggsmatic (3) and Aquaphobia (5).

Trifectas: 

Box: Arklow (1), Paret (9), Muggsmatic (3) and Aquaphobia (5)