Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 2, 2022

Race 7 at Churchill Downs | Saturday July 2 | Post Time 3:55 PM Eastern

American Derby | Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Analysis and top contenders:

The KEY to this race is the starting favorite, Rattle N Roll (9), opening at 3 to 1, is a false favorite. He’s winless in five races this year including his last two efforts at Churchill Downs where he never threatened to win, first when second to a five length winner as the 4 to 5 favorite then when six lengths behind the leading pair in the similar (though graded) Matt Winn Stakes for three year olds only run on June 12.

With a suspect favorite, the betting opportunities are opened up, starting with Kitodan (4), the opposite of Rattle N Roll with a record of four wins in five races this year. All of those came on turf or all-weather but he’s bred to run on dirt just as well, where he broke his maiden in a seven furlong sprint last July at Gulfstream Park. Since stretching out to two turns, Kitodan has won four of six including the Rushaway Stakes in April and the Audubon Stakes four weeks ago. Gerardo Corrales was aboard for that win when riding for the first time and rides back, and the cut back in distance from nine furlongs to eight and one-half helps his chances to run as well or better as he did in the Audubon when earning a 100 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the BEST/FASTEST any horse in this race has run, ever. As such and with starting odds of 12/1, Kitodan is the first horse we should consider for any and all wagers we make in this race.

Search Engine (3) ran poorly in his two races as a two year old last summer and fall but matured a lot over the winter and won easily around two turns in his three year old debut in February. He won right back in April with a 94 figure effort then improved to a 98 figure (not far from the 100 Kitodan earned last month) when  beaten a half-length at this distance and perhaps as importantly against older males. He cost $625,000 at auction in March of last year, mostly because he’s a FULL brother to Search Results, the multiple stakes winning filly who recently won the Ruffian Stakes and who has won five of nine races to date. This colt has more improving to do and for a horse in the care of top trainer Tom Amoss his 12/1 starting odds are going to be difficult to pass up when considering win bets in this race.

McLaren Vale (5) and Kuchar (8) both come from the strong barn of Rodolphe Brisset, who is winning at a decent 21% clip on the year.  McLaren Vale has only finished worse than third in five races, winning twice including his most recent start at Horseshoe Indiana with a 95 figure and at the distance of this race. Interestingly enough, he cost the same $625,000 at auction as Kuchar, and he certainly be a factor here if he repeats or improves upon his last effort, but his 4 to 1 starting odds aren’t nearly as tempting as the12/1 odds on either Kitodan or Search Engine. Kuchar opens at slightly higher odds (5/1) as his stablemate and earned the same 95 figure in his most recent start, a win at Churchill Downs at a mile and one-quarter. He’s run two “A” races in a row since adding blinkers and Geroux was up for both and rides back to another good effort can be expected.

Win bets:

Kitodan (4) and Search Engine (3) should both be considered for win bets at odds of 4 to 1 or more. When making two wins bets in a race, it is true we are sacrificing one of the bets because (except in rare instances) only one horse can win, but in this case we are still likely to make a nice profit if either of these two horses wins.

Exactas:

Box Search Engine (3), Kitodan (4), McLaren Vale (5) and Kuchar (8).

Search Engine (3) and Kitodan (4) over ALL.

Optionally, instead of a place bet and specifically because Search Engine and Kitodan open at double digit odds, you can play an exacta consisting of ALL over Search Engine (3) and Kitodan (4).