Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 23, 2022

Race 10 at Saratoga | Saturday July 23 | Post Time 6:13 PM Eastern

Caress Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $200,000 | Five and One-Half Furlongs on Turf | Fillies and Mares, Four Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

10 are entered in this excellent turf sprint stakes race, and five have some shot to win. The 5 to 2 morning line favorite is Caravel (1), who is fairly legitimate as she just won the nearly identical Intercontinental Stakes at Belmont last month. That being said, and with utmost respect for anyone who tries to predict how the public will bet by making the morning line, the 30/1 starting odds offered on Fouette (10) are unbelievably high. First, this filly has a similar record to many of the other nine, 3-2-3 in 13 races to be exact. She cost $140K at auction as a three year old last November after a so-so record 2-2-3 in her first nine races, all on dirt and all for Steve Asmussen. She ran a couple of times on the all-weather at Turfway Park in the winter and pressed or set the early pace but faded late. HOWEVER, after moving to the barn of Linda Rice at some point between January and her next start on May 27, Fouette was ANOTHER HORSE ALLTOGETHER. In her first start for Rice, at six furlongs on dirt, Fouette set the pace and dominated in hand by four lengths. That effort was by far her best ever as she earned a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. To put that figure into perspective, Caravel earned a 104 figure winning the Intercontinental. Since the win, Fouette put in a strong 47.2 half-mile workout which was the best of 44 at the distance on the day, and she gets the #1 jockey for the barn in Jose Lezcano as Jose Ortiz goes to Monmouth today. Her breeding screams turf as she’s by Nyquist (who produced multiple turf sprint stakes winner Gretzky the Great) out of a mare whose only other foal to have a win has won a turf sprint. Simply put, if the effort Fouette put forth last time out wasn’t a fluke, and particularly if she improves second off the layoff, she can post the huge upset in this field.

Star Devine (3) and Caravel (1) finished second and first, respectively, in the Intercontinental, with Star Devine having won the Galway Stakes at this distance on the Saratoga grass last year before taking eight months off and returning to finish second in a stakes at Keeneland to multiple stakes winner Campanelle. She improved markedly second off the layoff and could turn the tables on Caravel in this situation. Caravel has no knocks, especially as she own this race last year off a win in a turf sprint stakes at Monmouth which wasn’t graded and this year won the grade 3 Intercontinental. She had moved to the Cox barn prior to her 2022 debut in March following four months off and she’s likely to take another step forward in only the fourth start of the year.

Miss J McKay (2) and Bout Time (3) deserve mention, with a combined record on grass of 7-4-2 in 17 races including stakes. Miss J. McKay finished second two years ago in a stakes at this distance at Saratoga and although a poor eighth in the Intercontinental won a stakes right before that (106 figure), with Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle, who gets back on after not riding last time out. Bout Time has never been worse than second in four turf races, winning three including her first try in a stakes last month. Her back-to-back 98 figures need improving to get to the level of any of the other four but she’s lightly enough raced that is a strong possibility.

Win bets:

Theirs is no doubt no matter what minimum odds I set on Fouette (10), given her 30/1 starting odds, she’s going to be a bet. I think her odds should be no more than 5 to 1 so a win bet is definitely recommended.

Also, at these odds an “exacta as a place bet” is nearly always a good idea, so for at least $1 the exacta will be ALL over Fouette (10).

Minimum odds for considering a win bet on Star Devine (3) and on Caravel (1) are 5 to 2 and it appears only Star Devine may meet that threshold. Still, I have no hesitancy betting Star Devine to win as well.

Exactas:

Caravel (1), Star Devine (3) and Fouette (10) over Caravel (1), Miss J McKay (2), Star Devine (3), Bout Time (4), and Fouette (10)