Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 24, 2021

Race 10 at Del Mar | Saturday July 24 | Post Time 9:30 PM Eastern (6:30 PM Pacific)

San Clemente Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $200,000 | One Mile on Turf | Fillies, Three Years Old

Nimbostratus (11) is my pick to post the upset over likely heavy betting favorite Going Global (2) in this year’s San Clemente Stakes. After importing to the U.S. last summer, Nimbostratus showed she had a lot of talent when leading late and settling for second behind Madone in the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar. In her three year old debut in January, Nimbostratus rallied for third behind Going Global in the Sweet Life Stakes, then shortened from a mile to six furlongs and ran the best race of her career, earning a 100 Equibase Speed Figure in the process. Following a poor effort in the Senorita Stakes in May (won by Madone (9), Nimbostratus shortened up again and bettered her career-best with a 104 figure effort. Jockey Abel Cedillo was aboard for the first time in that race and rides back. That race was an allowance/optional claiming race and I’m pretty sure no one expected Nimbostratus to be claimed from that race as her price tag was $150,000, but she was. Now in the hands of up-and-coming star trainer Leonard Powell, who saddled Flashiest to win the opening day Oceanside Stakes last week, Nimbostratus can win the San Clemente if she repeats that last effort as the 104 figure is on par with the figure favorite Going Global earned in her most recent effort winning the Honeymoon Stakes.

Going Global (2) doesn’t need much talking up as she’s won four straight races since coming to the U.S. in February. All four were stakes and her consistent figures of 99, 95, and 99 and most recently 104 show she’s holding top form. Off since the middle of May, trainer Phil D’Amato (who also saddles Equilove (6)) has given the filly a series of steady workouts and as the most recent of those were on the Del Mar turf, this filly has every right to run another “A” race good enough to win under jockey Flavien Prat, who has been aboard for all four of her local wins.

Equilove (6) fits at the level and may be a horse at higher odds near post time given the nature of this full field. She’s never run in a stakes race but her last race 102 figure, earned s printing last month on turf, demonstrates she fits with these as it’s nearly on par with the 104 figures Going Global and Nimbostratus earned in their most recent races. Equilove came to the U.S. over the fall and winter and made her first start for D’Amato in March. She won that race nicely with a 94 figure, then stumbled at the start in her next race and lost all chance but still managed to finish fourth. Then came the breakout race last month in which she led from start to finish under jockey Ricardo Gonzalez, who rides her today. Considering Equilove had won her first local start when fifth early and her most recent on the lead from start to finish, that kind of versatility bodes well for her chances to be in the mix at the end of this year’s San Clemente Stakes.

Honorable mention, and some consideration for bets we make involving this race, goes to Madone (9), Karakatsie (10) and Closing Remarks (12). Madone won the similar Senorita Stakes at a mile in May but the figure was just 89 so she would need to improve to be competitive. However, she won the first three starts of her career including two stakes, one at Del Mar, so that type of improvement is not out of the question. Karakatsie ran the best race of her career last month when second and beaten a neck in the Martha Washington Stakes at Gulfstream Park, earning a 98 figure. She is on a pattern for more improvement off a layoff then a 94 figure effort and she is sired by Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Karakontie so may have what it takes to be in the mix here. Closing Remarks has finished first or second in five or seven races including her last four. All four were takes on turf and in one of those, the Providencia Stakes, Closing Remarks was only a neck behind Going Global (IRE) so she has shown enough to be respected when considering exacta wagers in this race.

Win bets:

Nimbostratus (11) to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Equilove (6) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Going Global (2), Equilove (6) and Nimbostratus (11)

Going Global (2), Equilove (6) and Nimbostratus (11) over Going Global (2), Equilove (6), Nimbostratus (11), Madone (9), Karakatsie (10) and Closing Remarks (12).

Trifectas:

Going Global (2), Equilove (6) and Nimbostratus (11) over Going Global (2), Equilove (6), Nimbostratus (11), Madone (9), Karakatsie (10) and Closing Remarks (12) over Going Global (2), Equilove (6), Nimbostratus (11), Madone (9), Karakatsie (10) and Closing Remarks (12).