Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 30, 2022

Race 8 at Del Mar | Saturday July 30 | Post Time 8:30 PM Eastern

Bing Crosby Stakes – Grade 1 | Purse $400,000 | Six Furlongs | Three Year Olds and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

I am going to start with a potential upsetter in Howbeit (6), who has won six of 20 career races on dirt, including three of eight last year. Claimed for $32,000 in February of 2021 after winning four of 12 dirt sprints, Howbeit ran the best races of his career in succession with two runner-up finishes followed by two very strong wins by margins of three and one-half and four and one-half lengths. Those efforts earned 108 and 105 Equibase Speed Figures, which put in perspective are on par with the top horses in this field, as evidenced by the 109 figure American Theorem (9) earned winning the Triple Bend Stakes in May and the 109 figures earned by Shaaz (Steve Sexton Mile) and by Letsgetlucky (7) (Count Fleet Sprint Handicap). Returning to the races on July 2 after nine months off, Howbeit was the odds-on favorite in the Oak Tree Sprint Stakes but stumbled and lost his jockey at the start. Having put in a few spectacularly fast workouts prior to that race, trainer Mark Glatt has given Howbeit just one, slower five furlong workout in preparation for this race as he was already in top condition. Considering that one of his career-best efforts came one year ago this week at Del Mar (July 25), I think Howbeit may have what it takes to win this year’s Bing Crosby Stakes and surprise many racing fans.

Diamond Oops (8) has always been an interesting horse to me. After winning three of his first five races in 2017, including two stakes on dirt (both sprints) and making only one start in 2018, trainer Patrick Biancone switched him to turf for his 2019 campaign, then back to dirt to win the Smile Sprint Stakes that summer. Entered in the Phoenix Stakes that fall at Keeneland, Biancone instead ran Diamond Oops in the Shadwell Turf Mile, nearly pulling off the 12 to 1 upset when the horse led late and finished second. Later that year Diamond Oops moved  back to dirt to win the Mr. Prospector Stakes then the following September (2020) he won the Twin Spires Turf Sprint with a last to first rally, then moved back to dirt to win the Phoenix Stakes. Although Diamond Oops has won just one of 12 races since, that one win earned a 111 figure as good as any he had earned earlier in this career. It is very interesting that Biancone shipped Diamond Oops to Del Mar, where he had never run before, and entered him in a race on July 23, just one week ago, likely with the Bing Crosby Stakes in mind if the horse ran well, which he did when finishing third of seven behind multiple stakes winner C Z Rocket. Prior to that race, Diamond Oops put in a very strong five furlong workout in 58.8 seconds, with both the workout and subsequent race demonstrating the horse likes the Del Mar surface and could run even better in his second start locally.

Drain the Clock (4) has won half of his 14 starts including four stakes races. In his first start of 2022, Drain the Clock opened up late in the race and was just run down by a neck in the Gulfstream Park Sprint, earning a career best 113 figure which one might expect from a maturing four year old. After a poor seventh place finish against some of the best sprinters in the world in the Dubai Golden Shaheen Stakes in March, Drain the Clock resurfaced in the Smile Sprint Stakes four weeks ago against horses which had run more recently than March, which could explain why he faded to fourth after moving up from sixth to lead after a half-mile. Before leaving his home base in south Florida, Drain the Clock put in a very strong 46.2 four furlong workout and this being his second start off the layoff may return to top form good enough to win a graded stakes for the fourth time in his career.

The top three being the main win contenders in my opinion, honorable mention has to go to a few other horses. First among those are American Theorem (9) and Principe Carlo (5), who both earned strong 109 figures when first and second, respectively, in the Triple Bend Stakes near the end of May. Both were ignored in the wagering at 13 to 1 odds, but neither would be a surprise if running well in this situation. Letsgetlucky (7) also may deserve some respect as his career-best effort (with a 109 figure) in the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap in April was noteworthy. Not only did he close strongly in the last eighth of a mile into Breeders’ Cup Sprint divisional leader Jackie’s Warrior, it must be noted both the winner and third finishers returned to win their next starts. 

As to Shaaz, he may possibly be the betting favorite with his trainer being Bob Baffert and off his 109 figure effort when third in the Steve Sexton Mile in his most recent start. However, with Shaaz having run just four times and with his other three efforts yielding 93, 97 and 101 figures which are inferior to the rest of the field’s efforts in races similar to this one, I’ll take a stand against him.

Win bets:

Minimum odds for considering win bets are 7 to 2 for all three contenders – Drain the Clock (4), Howbeit (6) and Diamond Oops (8). This is a great opportunity to bet two of the three which are the highest odds and make a lot of money if we are right.

Exactas:

Box Howbeit (6) with ALL

Drain the Clock (4), Howbeit (6) and Diamond Oops (8) over ALL (you can take out Howbeit if you made the first bet).