Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 31, 2021

Race 8 at Saratoga | Saturday July 31 | Post Time 5:03 PM Eastern

Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap – Grade 1 | Purse $350,000 | Six Furlongs | Three Year Olds and Upward

Special Reserve (9) opens at 9 to 2 odds in this fantastic renewal of the Vanderbilt Handicap, a race in which a couple of other entrants - Firenze Fire (3) and Whitmore (6) - have combined to win more nearly seven million dollars in their careers. The latter two have few knocks, but Special Reserve can absolutely win if he repeats either of his last two efforts. The first of the pair was the Maryland Sprint Stakes in May, in which Special Reserve easily beat a good field of 11 while running this six furlong distance in 1:08.8. That effort earned him a career-best 114 Equibase figure, which he then nearly duplicated on July 3 winning the Iowa Sprint Stakes with a 113 figure and running six furlongs in 1:08 flat. Getting an outside post for this race, and with excellent tactical speed which has seen him win on the lead as well as from as far back as fourth in the early stages, Joel Rosario should have Special Reserve wherever he needs to be in the early stages and out of any kind of traffic trouble, allowing him to post the mild upset in this race.

Mischevious Alex (2), like Special Reserve, has seven career wins. He has run 13 times while Special Reserve has run 20 and like Special Reserve, Mischevious Alex likes to win. After moving to the barn of Saffie Joseph in January, the colt ran the best race of his career to earn a 108 figure at this distance, then earned a 107 winning the Gulfstream Park Sprint in February. Next up Mischevious Alex shipped to New York and won the Grade 1 Carter Handicap by five lengths with a career best 113 figure on par with the 113 and 114 top figures Special Reserve earned in his two most recent starts. After that, Mischevious Alex didn’t run nearly as well in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap in June but on the cut back to six furlongs and with Irad Ortiz, Jr. staying aboard, it appears pretty likely Mischevious Alex can return to winning form. However, he opens as the 2 to 1 morning line favorite and as such although we should use him on exacta and trifecta tickets we should much rather hope Special Reserve wins.

Firenze Fire (3) has as many wins (14) as the previous two contenders combined. He enters the race off three straight “A” efforts this year including wins in the Runhappy Stakes (116 figure) in May and the True North Stakes (113) in June, before a tough loss by a head on the wire in the Nerud Stakes last month (113). However, and it could be a big “however,” Firenze Fire finished fourth in this race the past two years, and it must be noted that Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode him in four straight races, gets off to ride Mischevious Alex. Although brother Jose Ortiz is competent, and actually has more wins to date at Saratoga this year than his brother, those are things to consider as he opens at 3 to 1.

Whitmore (6) is as hard of a trier as any horse I’ve ever seen, resulting in 28 first or second place efforts in 41 starts, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint. He finished second in last year’s Vanderbilt with a 108 figure and earned 110 figures twice this year to date, but then gain he has finished second or third in three straight and at the age of eight may have to settle for a minor award again.

Win bets:

Special Reserve (9) to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Special Reserve (9) and Firenze Fire (3)

Special Reserve (9) over Mischevious Alex (2), Firenze Fire (3) and Whitmore (6)

Trifectas:

Special Reserve (9) over Mischevious Alex (2), Firenze Fire (3) and Whitmore (6) over Mischevious Alex (2), Firenze Fire (3) and Whitmore (6)

Special Reserve (9) over ALL over Mischevious Alex (2), Firenze Fire (3) and Whitmore (6)