Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 4, 2020

Race 11 at Belmont Park | Saturday, July 4 | Post Time 6:51 PM Eastern Time

Suburban Stakes – Grade 2| Purse $200,000 | One Mile and One Quarter | Four Year Olds and Upward

In longer races run over the huge Belmont main track, I think people forget how hard it is to come from behind and win. Horses which come from mid-pack to far back just don’t get up as many racing fans and handicappers feel they do, resulting in some pretty good payoffs from horses with early speed and stalkers. I feel I’ve had excellent success over the years in the Belmont Stakes (12 furlongs), Jockey Club Gold Cup (10 furlongs) and this race, the Suburban, also run at the classic mile and one-quarter distance. Included in that tally are Belmont winners D’Tara ($79 to win in 2008) and Ruler On Ice ($51 to win in 2011) and more importantly Diversify ($14) in this race two years ago and Preservationist ($9.90 in the 2019 Suburban.)

I write this not to take a bow, but to say how strongly I feel Mr. Buff (4) is going to win this year’s Suburban. Winner of 14 races on dirt from 36 starts and seven of his last 12, Mr Buff is tough as nails when establishing the early lead from the start as he did winning the Jazil Stakes at nine furlongs in January and the 2019 Empire Classic at Belmont. He did win the Alex Robb Stakes last December after stalking in second so he’s not a true need-the-lead type but I suspect Junior Alvarado will put him on the lead from the start. He had been off nearly four months from February to June 12 when returning in the Commentator Stakes and he did not make the lead after bobbling at the start, settling for second at the end. As it turns out, that race serves as a perfect prep for this 10 furlongs trip as he chased a 45.8 half mile and 1:10 six furlong split. A potential bigger reason Mr Buff stands out in this field, as good as it is, is his last four Equibase figures are 116 ,112, 119 and 110 and those are ABSOLUTELY higher than ANY other horse’s figures in the race, period. Speaking of Alvarado, he won this race last year with Preservationist (who was second early) as well as with Flat Out in 2013 and with Effinex in 2015 so I have a lot of confidence in Mr Buff in this race.

Moretti (8) is the ONLY horse I  could see beating Mr Buff in this race. He’s a lightly raced (nine starts) four year old whose last two races have been the two best of his career. He won the mile and three-eighths Flat Out Stakes on June 11, leading from start to finish, but won one month earlier when rallying from seventh so he has the versatility to be successful. The 104 figure earned in the Flat Out doesn’t come close to any of Mr Buff’s last four efforts BUT Moretti improved from 93 previous to that and if he takes the same leap forward, which is logical, he’s in the 115 range good enough to win. Of the eight horses, Moretti has the best pedigree for 10 furlongs, being by Megaglia d’Oro out of a Concerto mare. Castellano has been up only twice, for the last two wins, and rides back which is another reason to consider Moretti with most of the rest of the probability to win this year’s Suburban if Mr Buff does not.

I’m hoping Tacitus (1) takes a lot of money to help keep the odds of both Mr Buff and Moretti decent enough for profit. Tacitus tries blinkers after running fourth the entire length of the stretch in the Oaklawn Handicap in May. He wore blinkers twice last year and ran the same way, not passing in the stretch in the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. In short, he’s not a fighter and will more than likely settle for a minor award once again. Sir Winston (6)¸who I tabbed to win last year’s Belmont, makes his second start as a four year old off a runner-up finish to Moretti and as both colts should continue to improve I don’t see any reason to believe Sir Winston can reverse that last order of finish. Just Whistle (7) is a horse I’ll use in second and third off an improving pattern of 100 then 103 figures at nine furlongs in his last two races.

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets:

Mr Buff (4) to win at odds of 6 to 5 or more, a true low odds overlay win bet.

“IF” Moretti (8) is 7 to 2 or higher near post time, he can be bet to win as well, but for a smaller amount than on Mr Buff.

Exactas:

Mr Buff (4) over Tacitus (1), Sir Winston (6), Just Whistle (7) and Moretti (8).

Mr Buff (4) and Moretti (8) over Tacitus (1), Mr Buff (4), Sir Winston (6), Just Whistle (7) and Moretti (8).

Trifectas:

Mr Buff (4) over Tacitus (1) and Moretti (8) over ALL.

Mr Buff (4) over ALL over Tacitus (1) and Moretti (8)