Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | July 9, 2022

Race 12 at Horseshoe Indianapolis | Saturday, July 9 | Post Time 6:40 PM Eastern

Indiana Derby – Grade 3 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth | Three Year Olds

Analysis and top contenders:

We’ll start with King Ottoman (4) from the Asmussen barn. The colt by Curlin was bred to run at longer distances only and that’s why he debuted at this mile and one-sixteenth distance back in February, finishing a decent fourth of 10. Next came another fourth place effort, followed by a third place effort early on the card on Kentucky Derby day. The runner-up from that race (Warrior Johny) returned from that race to win his next start powerfully by 12 lengths. That probably wasn’t the reason King Ottoman was entered in the Texas Derby on May 30 even though still a maiden, but the productive nature of that May 7 race shone through as King Ottoman won that race, which carried the same $300,000 purse as this Indiana Derby. Not only that but he showed a lot of physical and mental toughness as he battled head and head with the eventual runner-up for the entire last eighth of a mile. The 105 Equibase Speed Figure (which allows us to compare horses from different tracks) was very strong. To put it in perspective, favorite Rattle N Roll (6) earned a career-best 101 figure winning the American Derby last week. The only other horse with as good of a figure is Actuator (7). Now that the light bulb has done on for King Ottoman, we might expect a similar effort and if that were to occur he can win this race, as well as make us a decent profit as his starting odds are 5 to 1. Best of all, of all the horses in the field, progeny of Curlin have the best record by far in stakes races for three year olds, with 22 of his 74 runners having won at least one stakes race around two turns on dirt for three year olds in the last five years.

Actuator (8) is also deserving of a lot of respect when considering our wagers in this race. His 7 to 2 starting odds are a bit lower than King Ottoman but higher than Rattle N Roll so it may well be he too offers value for win bets. The colt had run twice last year as a two year old, on grass, finishing third each time. A change in trainers to Mike McCarthy as well as eight months off to mature really paid off as he easily won on June 8 by seven lengths and with a 105 Equibase Speed Figure. Since the race the colt put in a very strong pair of workouts starting with a 47 flat half-mile (second best of 125) and a 59.2 five furlong drill (best of 26) that signal the same or better is forthcoming in this race.

Rattle N Roll (6) returns on six days rest after a strong win in the American Derby last week. I’m not concerned about the turnaround as trainer Ken McPeek reported that the colt had not been trained hard before the American Derby. He’s on a pattern of continually improving figures, from 83 in May to 95 in June to 101 last week, and he has superb tactical speed so may not need to expend a lot of energy in the early stages. Still, the 101 figure isn’t as high (fast) as the figures earned by either Actuator or King Ottoman, and if you assume for the most part all three colts are improving at about the same rate, it would take a bigger improvement for Rattle N Roll to win than either of the other two contenders. Still, off last week’s strong effort he’s not a horse to discount as a contender.

Best Actor (7) is a perfect two-for-two, with both wins coming around two turns. His figures of 96 and 92 are well below what will be needed to win here but he could complete the exacta or trifecta. Similarly, Un Ojo (9) made his mark in the division with a win in the Rebel Stakes in February (with a 91 figure), before a poor effort in the Arkansas Derby and some physical issues which kept him om the sidelines until now. I’m not sure he can run well enough to win off a three month layoff but he too might be able to get into the exacta or trifecta.

Win bets:

King Ottoman (4) and Actuator (8) if their odds are 5 to 2 or higher near post time.

Exactas:

Box King Ottoman (4), Actuator (8) and Rattle N Roll (6).

King Ottoman (4) over Rattle N Roll (6), Best Actor (7), Actuator (8) and Un Ojo (9).

King Ottoman (4), Actuator (8) and Rattle N Roll (6) over King Ottoman (4), Rattle N Roll (6), Best Actor (7), Actuator (8) and Un Ojo (9).

Trifectas:

King Ottoman (4) over Rattle N Roll (6), Best Actor (7), Actuator (8) and Un Ojo (9) over Rattle N Roll (6), Best Actor (7), Actuator (8) and Un Ojo (9).