Race 11 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, June 13 | Post Time 6:22 PM Eastern Time

Louisville Stakes – Grade 3| Purse $100,000 | One Mile and One-Half on Turf | Four Years Old and Upward

A well balanced field of 12 lines up for this marathon at 12 furlongs on grass and the morning line favorite at 8 to 5 is Arklow (5), who has banked $1.8 million in his career. He’s won one of three on the Churchill Downs turf and that was a low level race at a shorter distance earlier in career. Arklow is a horse who can run well in top company at marathon distances, but just the same his career record of five runner-up finishes to go along with six wins in 20 grass starts tells a story. Last year Arklow was beaten a neck when second in the Man o’War and Belmont Gold Cup, beaten a half-length when third in the Bowling Green and beaten three lengths when second in the Kentucky Turf Cup, all before winning the Turf Classic. He had no excuse when eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and only a moderate excuse in the Pegasus World Cup Turf in January. What this tells me is he has much less probability to win then is suggested by his 8 to 5 odds, partly because he finds trouble and partly because when in a fight near the wire he doesn’t have that killer instinct. I’ll certainly use him on exacta tickets but can’t bet him to win.

Instead, there are four horses, all a high odds (specifically because Arklow will be low odds, to consider. I’ll start with He’s No Lemon (4), a lightly raced four year old from the top barn of Graham Motion, opening at what I consider to be ridiculous odds of 15/1. Since stepping out to marathon distances last February in the fourth start of his career, He’s No Lemon has been first or second in four of five (he was third in the other). He won the $150K Bald Eagle Derby via disqualification when last seen in September, as the 7 to 5 favorite, so with that race carrying a higher purse then this grade 3 there’s no doubt he fits here. Graham Motion has had him in steady training at Fair Hills so he’s fit and he’s run well off the bench, not to mention Motion wins with nearly 25% of his starters coming off long layoffs. Likely stronger physically now as a four year old, He’s No Lemon looks quite capable of posting the upset.

Fearsome (10) won a 12 furlong stakes last October at Far Hills in his North American debut, in a field of 11 and with a nice rally from eighth in the early stages. That win came off a four month rest so there’s no concern about his coming off a layoff since December. His only other start since importing was a runner-up in the Grade 3 Valedictory Stakes at a mile and three-quarters on the all-weather at Woodbine in December. This horse can run as far as they write races and, like He’s No Lemon, appears to be very fit for his comeback. He actually possesses a strong pair of Equibase figures for his two starts, 108 and 111, with the 104 He’s No Lemon earned last year likely to be improved upon as a four year old. Those 108 and 111 figures are among the top three in this field so Fearsome is another horse which opens at 15/1 we should not ignore when betting this race.

Sky Promise (2) and Apreciado (3) are two more contenders for any wagers we make in this race. Sky Promise won at 12 furlongs on dirt in the $125K Temperance Hill Stakes at Oaklawn in March, before being overmatched in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap (at the shorter distance of nine furlongs) in May. He hasn’t run on turf in a while but has a win on the grass and is bred to adore the grass as a son of Sky Mesa. Trainer Diodoro wins one-quarter of his turf routes so there’s no issue with the top trainer taking a shot moving from dirt to grass. Apreciado finished second at the 12 furlong trip last fall in an allowance race and last time out in January finished third of 11 in the Grade 3 McKnight Stakes, a highly rated race won by Spooky Channel. That effort earned the best last race figure in the field (110) and if he can repeat the effort he has a shot to run better than his high odds suggest.

In addition to Arklow (5), Tiz a Slam (6) and Admission Office (12) should be used on exacta tickets. We can play bigger tickets in terms of investment here with the four main contenders all opening at 15 to 1 or higher. Tiz a Slam is likely to lead early as that’s his style and as he comes back fresh off a seven month layoff. He won three stakes in a row last spring and summer at this 12 furlong turf trip, starting with this Louisville Stakes. He put in a strong six furlong drill before leaving the trainer’s home base at Woodbine and will try to control the tempo from start to finish. However, the field this year is a bit tougher than the seven horse field he conquered one year earlier. Admission Office, like Arklow, opens at odds too low (3/1) for win betting. He has only won three times in 13 turf races, finishing second five times. After rallying from far back in seventh in the Mac Diarmida Stakes in February to make the lead he was outfinished and ended up second. His mile and one-sixteenth race last month was just a prep and he will be running strongly late but just like Arklow, Admission Office is prone to traffic trouble and coming up short.

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets: He’s No Lemon (4) AND Fearsome (10) to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
You can consider smaller win bets, about half the amount on the two above, on Sky Promise (2) and Apreciado (3) at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

Exactas: (Two Bets)

He’s No Lemon (4), Fearsome (10), Sky Promise (2) and Apreciado (3) over He’s No Lemon (4), Fearsome (10), Sky Promise (2), Apreciado (3), Arklow (5), Tiz a Slam (6) and Admission Office (12).

He’s No Lemon (4), Fearsome (10), Sky Promise (2), Apreciado (3), Arklow (5), Tiz a Slam (6) and Admission Office (12) over He’s No Lemon (4), Fearsome (10), Sky Promise (2) and Apreciado (3).