Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | June 20, 2020

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday, June 20 | Post Time 5:01 PM Eastern Time

Wise Dan Stakes – Grade 2| Purse $200,000 | One Mile on Turf | Four Years Old and Upward

Aquaphobia (5) is one of three horses in this year’s Wise Dan Stakes saddled by Mike Maker, the other two being Hembree (10) and Parlor (11), the latter two having run in the same prep race four weeks ago and about whom I’ll discuss later. Aquaphobia has the most wins among the trio, eight, all on turf, however I’m only concerned with how the horse has run since Maker claimed him in January for $62,500. Maker likely noticed Aquaphobia had finished third in a stakes on turf in only the third start of his career in 2016 and was only beaten four lengths in the $1.2 million Belmont Derby Invitational just two starts later. Bouncing around between a couple of trainers for the next two and one-half years, the horse managed to win five more times. Right off the claim in February, Aquaphobia won very powerfully at Gulfstream Park then he was entered in the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial. Factor This (3) won the race leading from start to finish at eight to one while Aquaphobia rallied to get to third, within three lengths of the leader, whereupon the jockey DROPPED THE CROP and he ended up fourth. Following that, Aquaphobia was no match for very good horse in Halladay in a stakes at Gulfstream but he was clearly second and in doing so earned a CAREER-BEST 112 Equibase figure, not far off from the 109 and 111 figures Factor This has earned in his last two starts, and better than the 104 figure March to the Arch (7) earned winning this race last year. Maker secures the services of Lanerie, who rides the course well, and the horse has excellent tactical speed so should be in second to fourth early, as opposed to far back (and prone to traffic trouble) a few of these are likely to be. From there, his only impediment to winning may be based on how easy a lead Factor This has had in the early stages, but if Aquaphobia shows the late kick he did in the 2/17 stakes at Gulfstream, he can win.

Factor This (3) is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win, and certainly a potential early pace edge doesn’t hurt his chances of winning his third straight graded stakes in a row. Even from the eight post position when last seen in the Muniz Stakes, Factor This secured the lead shortly after the start and drew off to win by three lengths in a 12 horse field. The 111 figure he earned was just a bit stronger than the 109 figure earned one month earlier in the Fair Grounds Stakes. Bridgmohan was up for both ad rides back and since shipping into Churchill last month, the horse has put in two exceptional recent works on the grass so could once again be the one to catch and to beat. On the downside, he opens as the 8 to 5 favorite and would not be a good win bet at low odds so we will have to try to make a profit from his winning in the exacta and trifecta.

There are a number of horses that can run second if one of the top two contenders disappoints, or could finish third for the trifecta. They all come out of the same highly rated prep race, a classified allowance race at this distance on this course on May 23. The winner is not running here, but runner-up Parlor (11) is, as well as third place finisher Hembree (10), fourth place finisher Just Howard (1) and fifth place finisher English Bee (2). All ran well enough, with 110 to 112 figures, to be a factor here.

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets:

Aquaphobia (5) to win at 5 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

Factor This (3) over ALL. (This is a better bet compared to a win bet).

Aquaphobia (5) and Factor This (3) over ALL.

Factor This (3) and Aquaphobia (5) over Just Howard (1), English Bee (2), Factor This (3), Aquaphobia (5), Hembree (10) and Parlor (11).

Optionally, you can also play the reverse of the above exacta, which is Just Howard (1), English Bee (2), Factor This (3), Aquaphobia (5), Hembree (10) and Parlor (11) over Factor This (3) and Aquaphobia (5).

Trifecta:

Factor This (3) and Aquaphobia (5) over Just Howard (1), English Bee (2), Factor This (3), Aquaphobia (5), Hembree (10) and Parlor (11) over Just Howard (1), English Bee (2), Factor This (3), Aquaphobia (5), Hembree (10) and Parlor (11).