Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | June 25, 2022

Race 9 at Churchill Downs | Saturday June 25 | Post Time 4:55 PM Eastern

Chicago Stakes – Grade 3 | Purse $200,000 | Seven Furlongs | Fillies and Mares, Four Years Old and Upward

Analysis and top contenders:

In most cases when assessing a race it’s a good idea to look at the favorites first and in this case that yields the opinion BOTH the second and third morning line favorites Lady Rocket (3), who opens at 5 to 2, and Bell’s the One (4), who opens at 7 to 2, are vulnerable. Although Lady Rocket has a 6-3-2 record in 13 races she’s lost both starts this year after establishing easy early leads. She may be dropping in class but even so the 97 and 100 Equibase Speed Figures earned in those two races PALE in comparison to three other fillies and mares in the field. Bell’s the One has won four times at Churchill Previously and has earned $1.6 million to date, BUT like Lady Rocket her two efforts this year, in spite of being in grade 1 races, do not suggest she is a standout here.

As such, Pennybaker (2) absolutely gets top billing, opening at 8 to 1 odds. The filly reeled off FOUR straight wins to end her three year old campaign in France last year including three against males, with three of the four also coming at this distance. She made her first U.S. start in April in the Heavenly Cause Stakes at Laurel at a mile around one turn and decimated the 12 horse field to win in commanding fashion by almost seven lengths. BEST OF ALL, she earned a 108 Equibase Figure which is the best last race figure in the field, AND she’s likely to run even better in her second U.S. start, as well as she should fire big fresh as she did in April. She’s been working consistently at trainer Stidham’s Fair Hills Training Center base and perhaps best of all the race she won was a KEY RACE from which three horses won and another finished second in their next starts, with two of those races coming in stakes races as well.

Bayerness (1) also opens at odds higher than they should be for a horse of her caliber, at 5 to 1. She won the Roxelana Stakes on April 30 here at Churchill Downs following nearly nine months off to bring her record to three for five at Churchill Downs. She’s also won at this seven furlong trip and perhaps best of all Luis Saez, who has ridden her four times, for three wins, stays aboard. Her start before the layoff earned a 106 figure as did the comeback so like Pennybaker even BETTER can be expected here.

Sconsin (7) opens as the 2 to 1 starting favorite and is not vulnerable as Lady Rocket and Bell’s the One are. She’s also not a standout because even though she won the similar Grade 3 Winning Colors Stakes one month ago that effort earned a 105 figure NOT superior to the last race efforts of either Pennybaker or Bayerness. That win last month came after eight months off so Sconsin can run even better, but her best efforts yielded 107 and 109 figures so again, even if she repeats them, if either of the other two improve off their last efforts, they can beat her.

Win bets:

Pennybaker (2) at odds of 5 to 2 or more

Bayerness (1) at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

I would not hesitate to bet both horses to win at odds higher than listed above.

Exactas: Box Bayerness (1), Pennybaker (2) and Sconsin (7)