Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | June 26, 2021

Race 10 at Churchill Downs | Saturday June 26 | Post Time 5:26 PM Eastern

Wise Dan Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $300,000 | One Mile and One Sixteenth on Turf | Four Year Olds and Upward

We need to start the conversation about betting this race for profit with Super Sol (4), who opens at 20/1, who opens at 2/1. Super Sol ran as well, and as fast, winning on the turf at Churchill Downs on May 31 (111 Equibase Speed Figure) as Set Piece did winning a non-graded stakes at Churchill Downs on turf (at the same distance) two days earlier (109 figure). Super Sol also ran as well, and as  fast, in his win as Somelikeithotbrown did in the Dinner Party Stakes on May 15 at Pimlico on the turf (113 figure). Super Sol was racing on turf for the VERY FIRST TIME in that 5/31 race and ran as if he had been on it his whole life, moving from seventh on the turn to win with a sustained rally by a half-length. This six year old was highly regarded early in his career in the Baffert barn, then moving to Asmussen, before he was claimed in October and November of last year. Since then he’s never been in for a claiming price and has won three of nine. He won that last race closing into a slow pace, which is another reason to believe that was not a fluke and overall the horse likes to win, with six victories in 19 races so I think passing on him from the perspective of win and exacta wagers in this race is opening us up to be kicking ourselves after the fact.

Set Piece (1) has run the two best races of his career in his last two starts, both non-graded stakes wins on the Churchill Downs grass under Geroux, who rides back. Like Super Sol, Set Piece rallied nicely from sixth on the turn to win by four lengths in his most recent race on May 29 and certainly that is worthy of respect particularly for a horse is, like Super Sol, is a WIN TYPE with a record of 8 for 15. The only knock is the low starting odds but that doesn’t mean we can’t make money if he does win or finish second as two of the main contenders open at double digit odds.

Heirarchy (5) is also impossible to pass up in terms of making a win bet, opening at 15/1. This is in spite of the fact he finished second in the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup last summer to multiple stakes winner Factor This and in spite of the fact he won on June 4 on the Churchill Downs turf with a 110 figure effort. That win came off an eight month layoff but he won as if he had run just one month earlier and it likely wasn’t a fluke as the hard knocking horse has been first or second in nine of 21 career turf races for over $350K in earnings.

Somelikeithotbrown (3), like Set Piece, is a contender to win or to hit the board but not a standout. He’s won three of his last eight races going back to one year ago and the two wins came in Grade 2 Stakes, most recently on Preakness Day in the Dinner Party (formerly Dixie) Stakes with a career-best 113 figure. Jose Ortiz rode then as now and the horse has come back with a strong five furlong workout so appears to be holding top form. Still, he’s been an in-and-outer in his career although with a seven for 19 record when he does run an “A” race he can be very tough.

Ride a Comet (7) must be respected for no other reason than his 8 for 16 career record including five for nine on turf and $400K in earnings on grass alone. He takes a drop in class after a ninth place effort in the Grade 1 Turf Classic on Derby day but before that was a solid runner-up to multiple grade 1 winner Raging Bull in the Maker’s Mark Mile in April. He also won the Tropical Turf Stakes at a mile in January with a career-best 117 figure. He’s another that, when he decides to run his best, is a graded stakes contender.

Win bets: Super Sol (4) and Hierarchy (5) to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

Exacta as a place bet:

Instead of place bets we try to play exactas which can pay more, which consist of ALL over Super Sol (4) and Hierarchy (5). Even at the $1 minimum, the total cost is $18 if all 10 run in this race and the bet can pay handsomely as in one of these at Churchill last year when a 35/1 shot beat our 16/1 shot.

Exactas: The strategy is to avoid tickets using Set Piece and Somelikeithotbrown for first and second on the same ticket as these are the two favorites:

Box Somelikeithotbrown (3) with Super Sol (4)

Box Somelikeithotbrown (3) with Hierarchy (5)

Box Set Piece (1) with Super Sol (4)

Box Set Piece (1) with Hierarchy (5)

Set Piece (1) and Super Sol (4) over Set Piece (1), Super Sol (4), Hierarchy (5) and Ride a Comet (7)

Set Piece (1), Super Sol (4), Hierarchy (5) and Ride a Comet (7) over Set Piece (1) and Super Sol (4)

Trifecta: Box Set Piece (1), Super Sol (4), Hierarchy (5) and Ride a Comet (7) and Somelikeithotbrown (3