Keeneland Select Pick of the Day | June 5, 2021

Race 4 at Belmont Park| Saturday June 5 | Post Time 1:22 PM Eastern

Brooklyn Stakes – Grade 2 | Purse $400,000 | One Mile and One-Half | Four Years Olds and Upward

This may be one of the best betting races on the card, because all nine can win, because there is unlikely to be a heavy favorite, and because there’s a lot of win betting value on both Lone Rock and Ry’s the Guy anywhere near their morning line odds compared to what their odds should be.

Lone Rock (9) loves to win (10 for 30 on dirt) and since moving to marathons (12 furlongs or more) three back he’s been “on” every time. He missed by a neck in the Temperance Hill Stakes in March, then won by nearly seven over You’re to Blame (who has neared nearly three-quarters of a million dollars) then in his last start he won easily by almost four lengths in the Marathon Stakes on Derby week at Churchill Downs. Lone Rock has superb tactical speed so we can expect him to be in the top three early and likely to take over by the eighth pole for his third straight win and sixth in his last seven races.

That being said, the 12/1 starting odds on Ry’s the Guy (2) means we have to bet him as well. He made a middle-move in the Marathon Stakes last month to lead after a mile then settled for second behind Lone Rock but two before that he won a marathon stakes by five lengths after leading from the start. With the two post, Jose Ortiz can go for the lead and, if another horse wants the front more, sit second, and as Ry’s the Guy is proven at the trip he has every right to post the upset.

Tizamagician (8) won the similar Tokyo City Stakes by nine lengths in his most recent race and now has finished first or second in five of his last six, with the only bad effort coming when overmatched in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. Another horse with good tactical speed, Tizamagician should be in the top flight early and down to the wire, and although he’s not a WIN type like Lone Rock as evidenced by his 4-6-0 record in 16 starts he has a very high probability to be part of the exacta.

For exacta purposes, we’ll add Musical Heart (5) and Ajaaweed (7).

Win bets:

First, Lone Rock (9) can be bet at odds of 8 to 5 or more.

For a slightly smaller amount, Ry’s the Guy (2) can be bet to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

If one of those two should scratch, I’d consider a win bet on Tizamagician (8) at odds of 7 to 2 or more.

Exactas:

Box Lone Rock (9), Ry’s the Guy (2) and Tizamagician (8).

In addition I like these two exacta part-wheel tickets as well. One is the reverse of the other which gives us chances to win both tickets:

Lone Rock (9), Ry’s the Guy (2), Tizamagician (8) over Lone Rock (9), Ry’s the Guy (2),  Tizamagician (8), Musical Heart (5), Ajaaweed (7).

Lone Rock (9), Ry’s the Guy (2), Tizamagician (8), Musical Heart (5), Ajaaweed (7) over Lone Rock (9), Ry’s the Guy (2), Tizamagician (8)

BONUS DOUBLE from Race 4 to Race 5:

Race 4: Lone Rock (9), Ry’s the Guy (2), Tizamagician (8), Musical Heart (5), Ajaaweed (7)

Race 5: Obligatory (2), Search Results (6), Miss Brazil (3