Race 6 at Belmont Park | Saturday, June 6 | Post Time 3:59 PM Eastern Time

Fort Marcy Stakes – Grade 2| Purse $150,000 | One Mile and One-Eighth on Turf | Four Years Old and Upward

We got exceedingly lucky last week on this page when top pick La Signare nearly got the dough at 21/1 but the “exacta as a place bet” strategy paid handsomely when the race was won by Secret Message at 25/1, resulting in a $522 (for $1 payoff). Unfortunately, there are no strong 20/1 shots in this field. On the other hand, there is no strong favorite either, with it Instilled Regard (5) opening at 7 to 2 odds. I have about as little regard for him in this race as I did for favorite Juliet Foxtrot last week in the Mint Julep so although we can’t expect a $500 exacta we can still make good money.

Devamani (7), one of four from the potent Chad Brown barn, gets top billing here, opening at 5 to 1 odds I think will hold up. Devamani has a record of 4-6-3 in 18 races on turf so that’s why the odds will offer value for the risk. However, a closer look at that record is worth noting because since he was gelded he has three wins and three runner-up finishes in nine starts. ONLY ONE of those came since being trained by Brown, which is very notable since the first race Brown entered him in was the horse’s first graded stakes try. That came in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes, the first time Joel Rosario rode as well, and it was the horse’s BEST EFFORT, EVER, as he rallied five wide on the turn and missed by a nose to earn a 115 Equibase figure which is the best last race figure in the field. Rosario also rode Gucci Factor (2) and Tribhuvan (9) I their most recent races, which the former won and the latter was a fast closing third in. The fact Rosario stays aboard this horse, who is making his second start for the top trainer in the country, speaks volumes for how well Devamani should run in this race.

Flop Shot (4) is the other of the Brown quartet I think can win. He’s a lightly raced four year old making his U.S. debut. He was never worse than third in six starts in France, including winning a Group 3 race last May which is the equivalent of a grade 2 stakes in North America. He finished off his three year old campaign with bang-up third place finishes in Group 2 races won by a very good colt in Headman. In steady training for his U.S. debut, Flop Shot gets Castellano and Lasix. Brown is so successful with this type I don’t mind the layoff or the fact the colt is making his U.S. debut. Overall, Brown has won with 25% (on over 100 races) of his U.S. imports, and at Belmont his record is 7 for 21. Opening at 6 to 1, perhaps the highest odds this colt may be after today, Flop Shot offers a second opportunity for profit on a win bet.

Synchrony (6) is approaching the $1 million mark in career earnings, currently at $944K. He’s won nine of 27 races, 7 on the turf, including the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes last spring with a 112 figure that stacks up well with the best in here. One race prior to that, Synchrony ran huge when missing by a neck in the Monmouth Stakes at this distance on grass. His 2020 debut effort at the trip was solid as well as he rallied for second in the Fair Grounds Stakes in February before closing way too late to get fifth of 12 in the Muniz Memorial in March. Rested since then, Synchrony has been working well at trainer Stidham’s base in Louisiana and considering how well he fired off layoffs in the past, with a win and a second in graded stakes, Synchrony should be a factor at the wire in this race as well.

Betting Strategies:

Win Bets:

Devamani (7) to win at 2 to 1 or higher.

Flop Shot (4) to win at 3 to 1 or higher.

Synchrony (6) to win as 3 to 1 or higher.

Note: The way I would bet is to make the win bet on Devamani at the odds above or more, then make a second win bet on whichever of the other two is the highest odds near post time.

Exactas:

Box Devamani (7), Flop Shot (4) and Synchrony (6).

Trifecta:

In addition to the exacta, or instead of the exacta, you can play this trifecta which serves the same purpose in terms of we win if any two of the three come in first and second, but it offers more potential if a high odds horse finishes third:

Devamani (7), Flop Shot (4) and Synchrony (6) over Devamani (7), Flop Shot (4) and Synchrony (6) over ALL.

Note: The cost of this bet, at the $0.50 level and if all nine horses run, is $21